Polysilicon and Wafer Sectors Grapple with Price and Inventory Pressures, while Cell and Module Prices Slide Amid Upstream Sector Pressure

Polysilicon：

Polysilicon prices have gone down further throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 47/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 45/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 52/KG.

Based on the current transaction dynamics, polysilicon transactions remain sluggish, resulting in a rapid decline in polysilicon prices in the short term. This places significant pressure on polysilicon manufacturers to adjust their prices swiftly. Consequently, the pace of order signings has slowed down. Regarding supply, there hasn't been significant change in polysilicon production, and the current inventory stands at approximately 190,000 to 220,000 tons. However, the imminent introduction of large-scale capacity in Q2 and Q3 will further strain polysilicon supply, especially considering that current prices are below manufacturers' production costs. Consequently, some manufacturers may opt to conduct maintenance in advance to mitigate profit pressures. On the demand side, wafer manufacturers are scaling back their production as anticipated, resulting in reduced purchasing demand for polysilicon. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance for polysilicon has intensified. This week, prices for dense polysilicon have fallen to RMB 45/KG, while N-type polysilicon is priced at RMB 52/KG. It’s evident that in an oversupplied market, polysilicon prices may continue to decline.

Wafer:  

The prices of wafer have declined throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.65/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 2.10/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.55/Pc and G12 N-type is priced at RMB 2.30/Pc.

In the realm of supply and demand, the majority of wafer manufacturers have scaled back their operations, with leading specialized companies continuing to reduce production, leading to significant losses for some manufacturers. Consequently, the operating rates in the wafer sector have plummeted to below 50%. Despite this, inventory consumption remains sluggish, making it difficult to alleviate the oversupply of wafers at present.

Examining inventory dynamics, 182N wafers constitute 66% of the total wafer inventory, while 210 (including 210R) accounts for 11%, and N-type 18X(R) faces even greater inventory pressure. Consequently, the average price of N-type 18X(R) wafers declined further this week, reaching 1.55 yuan/pcs. In summary, wafer prices continue their downward trajectory, albeit at a gradually slowing rate. Looking ahead, if polysilicon prices continue to decline, wafer prices will remain under pressure, particularly as they approach the cost line for some manufacturers.

Cell:

Cell prices have been sluggish this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.340/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.350/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.41/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.43/W.

In the realm of supply and demand within the cell sector, there remains a demand for p-type cells in certain projects. However, the p-type capacity is being phased out rapidly, prompting leading manufacturers to consider suspending production of p-type cells that cannot be upgraded or demonstrate lower cost performance. With declining wafer prices exerting pressure, cells are still at risk of price reduction. This week, prices for 182mm N-type cells have dropped to 0.41 yuan/W.

Looking ahead, with the introduction of OEM and dual distribution models, direct suppliers will face increased pressure on shipments, leading to weaker cell prices. Regarding 210mm P-type cells, as supply increases and market dynamics fluctuate during the order delivery period, there may be a temporary rebound in market conditions.

Module:

Module prices have experienced downward pressure throughout the week.  The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.86/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.88/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.88/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.13/W.

Module distributors have proactively stocked up in advance, and the fulfillment of overseas orders has been completed, resulting in a slight reduction in module production by leading manufacturers. With the likelihood of continued decreases in n-type cell prices, module manufacturers are increasingly inclined to lower their operating rates to mitigate the risk of decreased module value due to declining raw material prices. In recent days, bid prices for modules have shown signs of fluctuation.

In summary, module prices have declined this week. Furthermore, as long as polysilicon prices remain unstable, it will be challenging for module prices to stabilize, and the module sector will continue to face pressure in the future.