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EnergyTrend: Rush Order Influx Continues, Market Outlook Optimistic for 1Q12

       

As rush orders from Europe, North America, and China continue streaming in, the 1Q12 global solar market outlook has become more optimistic. EnergyTrend research indicates, as downstream orders flooded in, related vendors continued to receive orders and negotiate prices during the Chinese New Year vacation period. Even now, after the holiday period has ended, vendors’ product lines are at loaded capacity.

EnergyTrend: Benefitting from Inventory Restocking Orders, Post-Chinese New Year Solar Supply Chain Price Increase Brewing

       

As Germany’s installation volume for 4Q was unexpectedly high, inventory levels were adjusted significantly – some system makers’ stock levels had even fallen to recent lows. Meanwhile, affected by the uncertainty of Germany’s policies, demand momentum for 1Q12 may be similar to that of 4Q11. According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, although European system manufacturers have already begun to place orders, their main priority is still inventory restocking.

Upstream Spot Price Rises, Market Outlook Remains Unclear for 2012

       

According to EnergyTrend, TrendForce’s green energy research division, there is a division among current spot market price trends – solar cell and module prices have ceased falling and stabilized, while polysilicon and Si wafer prices are showing signs of an uptrend. As for the contract price trend in 2012, there has been talk of polysilicon and Si wafer price increases, but currently buyers and vendors are not seeing eye to eye on the matter.

Polysilicon Contract Price to Increase, Top Tier Manufacturers’ Stance Decisive

       

According to EnergyTrend research, the current spot market price has ceased falling and stabilized – some products have even seen a price increase. In terms of January 2012 contract price, some upstream suppliers are planning for a slight increase. However, negotiations are still underway, and EnergyTrend believes that the polysilicon contract price trend in 2012 will depend on the stance of downstream makers – wafer manufacturers in particular.

High-Efficiency Solar Products Gaining Popularity; Manufacturers’ Technology Capability and Strategies Come into Play

       

According to EnergyTrend’s survey, high-efficiency products are still in great demand in the market, which brings hope to the underperforming solar market. But according to related manufacturers, clients are mainly interested in products with conversion efficiencies above; those with efficiencies below 17% are categorized as B-grade products with prices 30-50% lower than those of superior products.

Tablet and Notebook Battery Market Outlooks Differ Vastly; Lithium Battery Makers Cut Production Due to Slow Market

       

According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, the ASP of 2.2Ah lithium cylindrical battery cell dropped to US$ 0.65 in November, representing a 7% decrease, while the ASP of 2.8Ah plunged to US$0.75. In addition, the ASPs of 2.3Ah and 3.2Ah lithium polymer battery cells dipped to US$ 1.48 and US$ 1.75, respectively, showing a less drastic drop. The lithium polymer battery, one of the more popular batteries in the market, is mainly adopted in tablet PCs.

Weak Demand Caused Inventory Level to Surge

Unable to Compete in the Price Wars, Mid and Small-scale PV Makers Temporarily Cut Capacity

       

According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, with the global PV industry in a state of oversupply, price has plummeted in 2011 – most noticeably in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the negative effects have spread to the upstream polysilicon sector as well.

Pessimism Permeates Solar Market, Few Buyers as PV Price Continues to Fall

       

According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, as inventory levels remain high and demand is not strong, PV price continues to decrease gradually. However, the lower prices have not enticed buyers and stimulated demand. Based on the current European and U.S. market outlook, it is likely to be a harsh winter for the PV industry.

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