Wafer and Cell Prices Continue to Decline as the PV Supply Chain Awaits a Market-Clearing Turning Point

Polysilicon

Polysilicon inventories currently remain at around 520,000 metric tons and continue to show signs of further accumulation, underscoring the worsening supply-demand imbalance.

Downstream ingot manufacturers remain well supplied with feedstock and are primarily focused on consuming their existing inventories, resulting in a further decline in procurement driven by immediate production needs. Spot market activity has remained sluggish, with virtually no transactions for conventional N-type chunk polysilicon, while only limited volumes of granular polysilicon have traded at around RMB 31/kg.

In the near term, ample raw material inventories at ingot producers will continue to delay purchasing demand. Combined with the heightened risk of a wider supply surplus this month, polysilicon prices are expected to remain under pressure and trend lower in a weak and volatile market.

Although leading producers have held frequent meetings aimed at addressing "involution" (excessive internal competition), market competition continues to intensify. Polysilicon segment remains weak, and downside risks to prices persist in the short term, with little sign of a meaningful market reversal.

Wafers

Wafer inventories currently stand at around 28 GW, while shipment pressure and inventory reduction challenges remain severe across the industry. Although July production schedules have increased slightly and wafer inventories are showing modest destocking relative to downstream cell demand, the industry's overall operating rate remains elevated, limiting the effectiveness of inventory reduction efforts.

To accelerate cash recovery, second- and third-tier manufacturers continue to offer modest price concessions, pushing wafer prices lower again this week. Persistent declines in upstream polysilicon prices have eroded cost support for wafers, and with inventory reduction progressing slowly, wafer prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate at low levels in the near term.

Cells

Inventory levels in the solar cell segment have risen to approximately 12 days of supply. Sluggish shipments have led to increasingly disorderly pricing, with mainstream transaction prices falling across the board to RMB 0.26-0.265/W, down around RMB 0.005/W from the previous period.

The cell sector remains in a weak bottoming phase. On the supply side, integrated manufacturers continue to ramp up capacity, leaving overall supply pressure largely unchanged, while inventories of 210R cells remain particularly elevated.

On the cost side, continued declines in silver prices have weakened cost support for cell manufacturing, prompting traders to liquidate inventories at lower prices. Meanwhile, amid the broader industry downturn, market participants have adopted an increasingly cautious stance, with downstream buyers limiting purchases and the prevailing "buy on rising prices, not falling prices" sentiment further amplifying downward pressure on prices.

Modules

Falling prices across the entire PV supply chain, combined with weaker-than-expected market demand, have further increased pressure on the module segment. Current market procurement remains concentrated on lower-priced products, with trading activity mainly driven by essential inventory replenishment and the delivery of previously awarded project orders.

Rapid declines in solar cell prices have significantly weakened module cost support, fueling bearish market sentiment. Leading manufacturers have responded with aggressive price cuts to secure orders, bringing mainstream module quotations down to RMB 0.66-0.68/W, while second- and third-tier suppliers have lowered prices to RMB 0.65-0.67/W. Some lower-efficiency products and excess inventories are even being cleared at deeper discounts.

With the entire PV supply chain still moving through a downward pricing cycle, downstream buyers remain highly cautious and increasingly conservative in procurement. As a result, module prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term.