Overseas Stockpiling Demand Eases, Putting Renewed Pressure on Wafer and Cell Prices

Polysilicon

Polysilicon inventories remain on an upward trajectory, with production continuing to ramp up and total industry inventory staying above 540,000 tonnes. At present, policy intervention remains the key factor influencing polysilicon prices and transactions across the upstream and downstream segments. As the relevant policies have yet to be fully implemented, market participants across the supply chain remain in a wait-and-see mode. Actual transactions are mainly limited to small-volume orders, deals through specific channels, and spot-futures transactions, with the market yet to establish a new pricing framework.

According to market sources, a meeting on production cuts among polysilicon manufacturers may be held this week, with the aim of supporting prices by curbing polysilicon output. However, manufacturers remain divided over the details of the proposed production cuts. Whether polysilicon prices can stabilize in September will therefore depend heavily on the actual implementation following the meeting. If the scale of the cuts or the execution falls short of expectations, polysilicon prices will remain vulnerable to further declines amid persistent oversupply.

Wafers 

Wafer inventories currently stand at around 24 GW. Inventories had declined significantly earlier, driven by overseas stockpiling ahead of exports. However, toward the end of August, rapidly weakening cell prices and demand once again put pressure on wafer prices, making shipments more difficult and causing inventories to begin accumulating again.

Actual transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R and 210 mm wafers have fallen to around RMB 1.08/pc, RMB 1.10/pc and RMB 1.17/pc, respectively, with some manufacturers still having room to offer further discounts.

The price-hike sentiment triggered by earlier policy expectations has quickly faded, and the wafer market has returned to market-driven competition. Downward price pressure remains. If polysilicon prices fail to hold at current levels, wafer prices could come under further pressure, making developments in polysilicon pricing a key factor to watch.

Cells

The overseas stockpiling boom has started to cool, affected by changes in the policy environment in international markets and inventory accumulation at overseas downstream markets. Cell inventories currently remain at around 7–8 days. Overseas orders are now mainly being fulfilled through direct sales by a limited number of manufacturers, while the volume of re-export and entrepôt trade has declined significantly. Overall demand for solar cells has weakened rapidly.

Cell prices continue to diverge across different wafer sizes. Demand from overseas markets continues to provide some support for 183 mm and 210R cells, with manufacturers maintaining quotations at around RMB 0.31/W. However, some traders have already lowered their offers to RMB 0.30/W or below. Demand for 210 mm cells, which are primarily supplied to domestic projects, remains weak, with the lowest offers from some smaller manufacturers falling to around RMB 0.29/W.

In the short term, if higher polysilicon prices fail to translate into meaningful transaction volumes, cell prices will remain exposed to further downward pressure from the upstream market.

PV Modules

The domestic market remains the primary source of module demand. As cell prices have fallen rapidly, cost support for modules has weakened. With the anti-involution policy measures and the new polysilicon pricing framework yet to be fully implemented, PV module manufacturers continue to maintain relatively high quotations. Tier-1 manufacturers are quoting around RMB 0.72–0.75/W, while Tier-2 manufacturers are quoting around RMB 0.70/W.

At present, efforts to pass higher module prices through to downstream customers are facing resistance. Procurement sentiment among market distributors remains weak, and no high-priced orders have emerged. Domestic market solar projects have limited acceptance of price increases, while a considerable volume of low-priced module inventory remains available in the market.

The standoff between upstream and downstream players in the module market is continuing. High-priced modules are becoming increasingly difficult to transact, while weakening cost support is creating some downside risk for module prices. Going forward, the market will closely monitor the implementation of the anti-involution policy measures.