Policy Signals Boost Market Sentiment, Stabilizing PV Supply Chain Prices Temporarily

Polysilicon 

Polysilicon inventories have further increased to around 530,000 metric tons, highlighting significant structural oversupply pressure. Downstream ingot manufacturers are mainly focused on consuming their own inventories, with external procurement demand remaining weak. Following the Yancheng meeting, many leading polysilicon producers broadly suspended external quotations from the end of last week, resulting in extremely limited market transactions and a largely stagnant market characterized by a wait-and-see stance.

Market competition and negotiation remain intense. On one side, the industry continues to face severe oversupply fundamentals and inventory accumulation; on the other side, strong expectations for industry regulation and policy intervention are supporting market sentiment. The actual price trajectory ahead will largely depend on the implementation details and enforcement strength of forthcoming policies.

Wafers

Wafer inventories remain above 28 GW, with shipment pressure continuing. Current actual transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R, and 210 mm wafers are approximately RMB 0.78-0.80/piece, RMB 0.88-0.90/piece, and RMB 1.08-1.10/piece, respectively. Driven by expectations of industry policy intervention, market sentiment toward further price cuts has recently eased, and wafer prices have gradually stabilized.

However, from a supply-demand perspective, wafer inventory digestion pressure remains significant. In addition, with downstream cell manufacturers expected to implement deeper production cuts in August, the supply-demand imbalance in the wafer segment is unlikely to be fully resolved in the short term.

Nevertheless, expectations for policy regulation have effectively improved market sentiment, reducing downward momentum in wafer prices. Short-term market recovery expectations are strengthening, while the effectiveness of policy implementation will be the key factor determining whether wafer prices can achieve a sustainable stabilization and potential rebound.

Cells 

Solar cell inventories have declined slightly and currently stand at around 11 days of supply, although inventory pressure remains. Under the combined pressure of high inventories and weak demand, overall industry production schedules continue to be reduced, with both integrated manufacturers and specialized cell producers lowering operating rates to varying degrees.

Supported by production costs and expectations of policy intervention, the price floor for solar cells is gradually strengthening, with some manufacturers beginning to test upward price adjustments. Current mainstream transaction prices remain around RMB 0.26-0.265/W, while transactions at higher price levels have increased. The price of 183 mm cells is currently trading at a premium of approximately RMB 0.005/W compared with mainstream levels.

Overall, solar cell prices have temporarily stabilized this week, with some segments of the market showing signs of slight increases. However, future price movements will continue to depend on policy implementation and improvements in supply-demand fundamentals.

Modules

Driven by expectations of policy intervention across the PV supply chain, both upstream and downstream companies have become more cautious with their quotations. Some module manufacturers have temporarily suspended price offers while waiting for greater clarity on raw material costs.

From a fundamental perspective, weak market demand and high inventories across the supply chain continue to coexist. Market purchasing activity remains limited, downstream buyers maintain a cautious wait-and-see approach, and module deliveries and transaction volumes have slowed.

Current module spot prices remain at around RMB 0.65-0.68/W. Prices were generally stable this week; however, considering the limited recovery in market demand and the continued pressure from industry-wide inventories, module prices still face some downside risk in the short term. Future developments will depend on the implementation of policy measures and the stabilization of upstream material prices.