Polysilicon Supply May Surge Again; Solar PV Supply Chain Prices Face a New Round of Downward Pressure

Polysilicon

Current domestic polysilicon inventories remain above 520,000 mt and continue to trend slightly higher. Sentiment has turned increasingly cautious ahead of the SNEC exhibition, resulting in fewer new contracts being signed. Transactions have mainly been limited to small-volume orders of discounted mixed-grade polysilicon and granular silicon, with mixed-grade material already falling to around RMB 32/kg. Market participants are now closely watching Tongwei's planned production restart in June, as well as whether downstream orders will materially improve following the exhibition.

Looking ahead, polysilicon supply is expected to increase further in June as polysilicon producers gradually resume operations, while downstream demand recovery continues to lag. As a result, the supply-demand imbalance may worsen, leaving polysilicon prices exposed to further downside risk in the near term.

Wafers

Wafer inventories remain elevated at around 27 GW, and inventory digestion pressure persists. Faced with substantial stockpiles, wafer manufacturers continue to adopt a cautious market outlook, focusing primarily on reducing inventories, accelerating shipments, and improving cash flow.

On the pricing front, some producers have resorted to aggressive discounting in order to clear inventory more quickly. Actual transaction wafer prices have declined by approximately RMB 0.02 per piece, dragging overall market pricing lower.

Based on current market demand and production scheduling trends, elevated inventories are unlikely to be absorbed quickly. Structural oversupply remains firmly in place, while the risk of further upstream price declines continues to filter through the value chain. Consequently, wafer prices are expected to remain under pressure, with limited prospects for a meaningful rebound.

Cells

Cell inventories remain elevated at around 10 days of supply, while shipment pressure continues to intensify. During the SNEC exhibition period, downstream module manufacturers largely stayed on the sidelines, showing limited procurement interest.

From a cost perspective, the combination of softer silver prices and declining wafer quotations has weakened cost support for solar cells. On the demand side, oversupply remains widespread across all product categories, although demand for large-format 210 mm products has remained relatively resilient.

Overall, the solar cell segment is currently constrained by a combination of high inventories, rising operating rates, and sluggish end-market demand. Against a backdrop of declining raw-material costs, bearish sentiment is spreading across the market, increasing downward pressure on cell prices.

PV Modules

Market procurement remains heavily focused on low-priced products, with most orders concentrated in large-format modules for China’s utility-scale solar projects. As a result, module manufacturers continue to face limited pricing power.

Mainstream transaction prices have fallen to approximately RMB 0.72–0.75/W, while some white-label and OEM module products traded during the exhibition period have reportedly fallen below RMB 0.70/W.

In the recently announced 6 GW module tender by China Datang Corporation, the average winning bid price was around RMB 0.75/W, with the lowest bid falling to approximately RMB 0.71/W, highlighting the increasingly restrictive impact of low-price tendering.

Although leading manufacturers continue to attempt to stabilize prices, ongoing price declines across upstream segments are steadily being transmitted downstream. Module prices are expected to remain under downward pressure in the coming period.