Inventory Pressure Persists, Keeping Wafer and Module Prices Under Continued Downward Pressure

Polysilicon

Polysilicon inventories remain at approximately 520,000 metric tons, with the oversupply situation yet to improve. Inventory accumulation continues across the polysilicon segment. Due to weak downstream demand, ingot manufacturers are also carrying elevated polysilicon inventories and are primarily relying on consumption of their own stocks, resulting in extremely limited purchasing interest.

Although leading polysilicon producers have maintained relatively stable external quotations, actual market transactions remain limited, and prices in sporadic deals continue to decline. Therefore, in the short term, polysilicon prices are expected to remain under downward pressure, mainly driven by the continued supply-demand imbalance, high downstream inventory levels, and persistent weakness in wafer prices.

Wafers

Wafer inventories remain above 28 GW, keeping shipment pressure elevated and intensifying price competition across the market. Current prices for 183 mm, 210R, and 210 mm wafers have declined to approximately RMB 0.81/pcs, RMB 0.91/pcs, and RMB 1.11/pcs, respectively, with some wafer manufacturers continuing to further lower their quotations.

Market sentiment remains bearish, with broad expectations of further price declines. To accelerate cash recovery, second- and third-tier manufacturers have increasingly resorted to discounted inventory clearance, further disrupting market pricing. Combined with weak market demand and rising cash flow pressure among manufacturers, wafer prices are expected to remain under downward pressure.

Cells

Cell inventories remain at approximately 12 days of production, and overall supply-demand pressure has yet to ease. Market transactions remain subdued, with mainstream prices currently at around RMB 0.26–0.265/W. Large-volume orders still retain some room for further price negotiations. Recently, the pace of cell price declines has slowed, with the market entering a weak bottoming phase.

On one hand, inventory pressure remains significant for certain formats, particularly 210R cells, where supply-demand imbalances are more pronounced. On the other hand, downstream buyers have become increasingly cautious, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment across the market. Nevertheless, the expansion of production cuts across the solar industry, combined with a temporary recovery in demand from the Indian market, has provided some support for cell prices.

PV Modules

Module prices remain under pressure as supply chain costs continue to decline and market demand recovery falls short of expectations. Current procurement activity remains concentrated on low-priced products, with essential inventory replenishment and deliveries of previously awarded projects representing the primary sources of demand. Meanwhile, rapidly declining cell prices have further weakened cost support for modules.

Recently, price-cutting and inventory clearance activities have intensified across the market. Leading manufacturers have significantly reduced quotations, with 183 mm TOPCon bifacial dual-glass module prices declining by another RMB 0.01/W from the previous week, reaching approximately RMB 0.65–0.68/W. Some lower-efficiency inventory products are being cleared at even lower prices.

Driven by the implementation of module efficiency policies and weak market demand, price competition has intensified recently. Module manufacturers are facing increasing shipment pressure, while overall market activity has slowed. In conclusion, in the near term, module prices are expected to remain under continued pressure.