Policy Expectations Fuel Price-Support Sentiment, with Cell and Module Prices Rebounding First

Polysilicon

Polysilicon inventories remain at approximately 530,000 metric tons, with inventory accumulation continuing and the supply-demand imbalance yet to ease. Driven by expectations of forthcoming policy intervention, some leading producers have raised their quotations for dense polysilicon to RMB 40/kg, while quotations for granular silicon have risen to RMB 38/kg. However, there have been few, if any, actual transactions at these levels.

The main reason is that downstream ingot manufacturers currently hold sufficient polysilicon inventories, while wafer inventories also remain elevated, leaving actual procurement demand insufficient to support higher prices. In addition, market demand remains weak, and the recent increase in module prices has yet to be successfully passed through the downstream value chain. As a result, the polysilicon price increase lacks sufficient demand-side support. In addition, the relevant policies have not yet been formally implemented, meaning that the current price increase is driven primarily by policy expectations.

In the short term, market negotiations are likely to remain intense. Whether polysilicon prices can sustain their rebound will depend largely on the pace of policy implementation and the extent to which higher prices can be passed through to downstream segments. A further rebound appears relatively likely, although its magnitude will depend on the evolving interplay between supply-demand fundamentals and policy developments.

Wafers

Wafer inventories remain above 28 GW. Driven by policy expectations, manufacturers have broadly raised their quotations by around RMB 0.10 per wafer, while low-priced orders have declined significantly and price differentiation has begun to emerge.

Among different formats, 183 mm wafers have led the price recovery, supported by a rebound in downstream cell demand. Large-format wafers, meanwhile, have broadly stabilized amid continued oversupply, with market participants currently negotiating around the new price levels.

Although wafer inventories remain under pressure in the short term, expectations of policy intervention have provided a notable boost to market sentiment, gradually strengthening the price floor. Wafer prices are therefore likely to have a relatively high probability of rebounding in the short term, although the magnitude of the recovery will depend primarily on the actual implementation of policy measures and downstream buyers’ willingness to accept higher prices.

Cells

Cell inventories currently stand at around 10 days of production and continue to decline. Driven by expectations of domestic policy support and changes in overseas market policies, demand for 183 mm cells has increased rapidly, with export demand becoming the primary source of support. Prices for 183 mm cells have led the rebound, rising to around RMB 0.29/W.

Meanwhile, 210R cell prices have risen to approximately RMB 0.28/W, while 210 mm cell prices have increased to around RMB 0.285/W, although relatively high inventories of 210R products continue to constrain their price performance.

Cell prices are currently supported primarily by expectations of industry policy intervention and rising costs. As wafer prices stabilize and silver prices recover, cost pressures on cell manufacturers are increasing, helping to gradually strengthen the price floor. Market quotations have now broadly risen to around RMB 0.30/W, and cell prices are expected to have some additional room for a modest rebound if policy expectations remain supportive.

PV Modules

Driven by expectations of policy intervention, low-priced orders are gradually disappearing from the market, prompting module manufacturers to raise their quotations across the board. Quotations from second-tier manufacturers have risen to around RMB 0.68/W, while leading manufacturers are quoting approximately RMB 0.72/W. However, actual transaction volumes remain relatively limited.

The current expectation of higher module prices is primarily driven by two factors. First, rising upstream cell prices are pushing up module manufacturing costs. Second, expectations of “anti-involution” policies aimed at curbing excessive price competition have improved industry sentiment and strengthened manufacturers' willingness to support prices.

In the short term, module prices are expected to have further upside of approximately RMB 0.01–0.03/W. Going forward, market developments will depend primarily on the pace of policy implementation and the extent to which market demand improves.