The PV market in China has been unprecedented strong in the first half of 2016, and the installation due date by June 30 drove an overwhelming installation rush in the second quarter of 2016. It is estimated that the PV grid connection capacity in 2Q would have exceed 13GW. Furthermore, estimation says that the monthly grid connection capacity simply in June could even reach 11.3GW, the historically high peak in the industry.
China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has yet announced the grid connection statistic for 2Q. PVmen.com, a Chinese online media collected data and created an estimation to the monthly grid connection capacities from January to June 2016 in China, as following (data for Q1 is from NEA):
Government-owned STATE GRID estimates that new PV grid connections in regions covered by its service in 1H reached 20.7GW. The volume is likely to exceed 22GW when PV connections covered by regional companies such as China Southern Power Grid are included.
NEA has announced that the PV grid connection capacity in 1Q was 7.14GW, including approximately 4GW of installation surplus from 2015 that were majorly connected to the grid in January. NEA also expected an over 13GW grid connection capacity for 2Q. Cumulatively, NEA estimates that the nationwide PV grid connection in 1H will exceed 20GW, representing a significant growth from 5.04GW in 1Q15 and 2.69GW in 2Q15.
In addition, approximately 10% of the estimated >20GW PV connections were distributed generation systems, and the rest 90% were large-scale ground-mounted PV power plants.
This year’s installation rush in China by June 30 set the new historical record in the world’s PV industry. As initially estimated, PV grid connections in MERELY June would even reach 11.3GW.
However, the stronger the installation rush is, the weaker the demand in off-peak season will be. EnergyTrend has found historical low prices for PV sectors from wafers, PV cells to PV modules in this July. PV makers have to reduce their production capacities to survive the off season in Q3 2016.
As for the year 2016, China’s total PV grid connection capacity is expected to reach 25~30GW. PV demand in 2H will be significantly weaker than in 1H because there will be only 5~10GW of extra demand. The electricity generation curtailment in western China, which has been taken as a serious problem to solve, is another limitation to the PV demand in 2H 2016.