According to EnergyTrend’s latest survey, the polysilicon market spot price has shown a slight decrease. PV demand remained strong in China, while a downtrend has occurred in other areas. Downstream manufacturers not only have to deal with rush orders, but also take inventory management into consideration. In addition, the changing PV market demand has led wafer and cell manufacturers to carefully control the inventory on stock. According to EnergyTrend, major manufacturers’ days of inventory on hand range from one to three weeks, so they can minimize the impact from sudden market demand reversal.
According to the current market condition, since a number of European countries have released their subsidies, the European market has picked up. Because of the announcement of unchanged subsidy amount and decreasing cost, the installation volume in Germany is expected rise in 2H11. EnergyTrend estimates that the incremental PV market installation volume in Germany is expected to rise to 3.5GW~4GW in 2H11 while the annual installation volume in Germany is expected to reach 5GW~6GW. Moreover, large scale solar system (>1MW) installation is capped in the latest Italian subsidy policy, but mid and small solar systems account for the majority of installation in Italy. Therefore, EnergyTrend believes that the market demand will recover after the Italian government officially announces the subsidy, and estimates that the Italian market demand in 2H11 can reach 1GW.
From the viewpoint of current changes in the European policies, solar rooftop system is the focus of subsidy plans, while installation demand from large solar systems will gradually fade. In order to squeeze more power output out of limited space, demand for high conversion efficiency product will continue to rise, leading to an increase in the mono-Si product price. EnergyTrend indicates that the demand for solar rooftop systems will continue to increase. As a result, it is crucial for manufacturers to be able to develop high conversion efficiency products while remaining cost competitive.