The U.S. Energy Information Administration has historically underestimated the pace of renewable energy development by quite a large margin, and it was not out of the ordinary for the EIA to have to constantly revise their renewable energy forecasts, but all of that is about to change. The EIA’s latest forecast, dated May 2020, indicates that the U.S. will have consumed more renewable energy than it does coal-fired energy by the end of the year, while renewable energy already overtook coal-fired energy in terms of daily electricity generation back in April.
The coal industry in the U.S. has been on a downward slope for the past 10 years, with a large number of coal-fired power plants closing their doors, accompanied by a drop in coal-fired energy consumption, which in turn cannibalized the coal mining industry as well. On the other hand, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, total energy consumption in the U.S. is expected to drop by 5% in 2020. Still, this decline is eclipsed by the projected 25% drop in coal-fired energy. In contrast, renewable energy is expected to grow by 11%.
The recent triumph of renewable energy can be attributed to several tried-and-true sources: whereas hydroelectricity saw almost no growth, wind and solar energy have been multiplying at breakneck paces. Wind energy usurped hydroelectricity in 2019 and became the king of renewable energy in the U.S.
Renewable energy is primarily used for general energy consumption; very little of it is used for transportation purposes. In comparison, coal-fired energy has significantly more industrial uses, in addition to its role as a staple in general energy consumption. A comparison between renewable energy with coal-fired energy in terms of total electricity consumption shows that, according to the EIA, the former surpassed the latter in 2019, the first time it had done so in 130 years, and a historical moment that marked a paradigm shift in electricity generation.
In the 18th century, the primary source of energy in the U.S. was a type of renewable energy known as biomass, which is to say, to put it bluntly, people burned wood. And they would keep burning wood until the mid-19th century, when coal-fired energy began its upward trajectory until it eventually became the dominant source of energy by the century’s end. Although hydroelectricity surged in popularity in the early 20th century, it was never able to replace coal-fired energy as the primary energy source in the U.S. For more than 100 years, coal-fired energy maintained its dominance and saw nonstop growth in its consumption starting in the mid-20th century. However, the past 10 years would mark the beginning of the end for this pervasive energy source. Coal-fired energy’s rapid fall from grace was accompanied by the equally swift rise of renewable energy, with the two finally crossing paths in 2019.
The battle for energy supremacy in the U.S. going forward will be hard-fought between renewable energy and natural gas, given the gradual phasing out of coal-fired and nuclear energy, the latter of which will result in only one new nuclear project in the foreseeable future. While natural gas has the advantage for now (albeit a huge one), even the EIA, which had historically underestimated the potential of renewable energy, is no longer ignoring the momentum of renewable energy. According to the EIA, renewable energy is likely to overtake natural gas and sit atop the energy food chain once again in the coming decades.
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