Polysilicon
Polysilicon quotations continued to rise this week, with the overall quotation of mono polysilicon elevating to roughly RMB 236/kg. The slightly improved domestic end market, coupled with the stocking demand for Chinese New Year, have enhanced the demand from various downstream segments, where the wafer end is maintaining a higher level of operating rate while constantly climbing in demand for polysilicon procurement. As for the overseas markets, India has confirmed the enforcement of the new duty system starting from April 1st, while Japan’s FiP system is about to expire, and the European market is gradually initiating stocking amidst steady increment in overall demand. The relatively slow releases of expanded polysilicon capacity is unable to fulfill purchase demand, and has resulted in a periodic short supply status, where prices will continue to surge.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the polysilicon sector indicates that partial businesses had started to sign for February orders this week, where a segment of orders have now been signed until March due to the comparatively refined supply state. Polysilicon prices are estimated to rise steadily prior to Chinese New Year.
Wafers
Wafer prices had comprehensively risen this week, with the largest degree of increment coming from M10 and G12 wafers. Longi announced its latest round of quotations this week, where G1, M6, and M10 wafers had all elevated to a varying level owing to how the inflation from the upstream polysilicon end has triggered an increase in cost and prices on the one hand, and that the Qinghai earthquake had slightly depleted output for partial wafer businesses, as well as delayed polysilicon transportation and equipment overhaul on the other. Short-term provision may not be sufficient. In addition, the recovery in domestic and overseas end demand has intensified procurement for downstream cell and module sectors, which provides support for an inflation among wafer prices. The mainstream concluded prices for G1, M6, M10, and G12 this week had respectively ascended to roughly RMB 4.9/pc, RMB 5.15/pc, RMB 6.1/pc, and RMB 8.1/pc. In terms of multi-Si wafers, the product has gone up to US$0.26/pc under a gradually diminishing supply and the excess demand generated by the recovered demand of overseas markets.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the wafer sector denotes that the magnified demand from the end market has yielded an increase in the operating rate for downstream cell and module sectors. When coupled with the impact from previous inventory reduction, first-tier businesses are expected to retain an operating rate of 70% in February, followed by a steady release of expanded capacity that will effectively mitigate confined supply.
Cells
Cell prices had slightly gone up this week, where M6 had risen to US$0.155/W under the support of invigorated overseas demand. Cell prices have followed the inflation direction alongside the elevated cost of upstream polysilicon and wafers that led to an increase in cost. Varied levels of improvement are seen from domestic and overseas end demand, where the stocking demand for Chinese New Year has marginally ascended cell demand, which facilitated smoothness in shipment and provided support for cell inflation. M6, M10, and G12 cells were concluded at respective mainstream prices of roughly RMB 1.08/W, RMB 1.11/W, and RMB 1.1/W. Cell businesses are estimated to sit at an overall operating rate of approximately 60-70% in January.
Modules
Overall module quotations had remained stable this week, with no apparent fluctuations in concluded prices. The centralized PV module procurement recently announced by CNNC indicates that bifacial modules are respectively priced at RMB 1.811/W and RMB 1.839/W, where quotations from first-tier makers are relatively higher at RMB 1.852/W and RMB 1.876/W respectively. A number of module makers attempted to increase their quotations by a further extent amidst revitalized end demand and Chinese New Year stocking demand, though no transactions were actually concluded, and the lack of inflation momentum did not induce any significant fluctuations to concluded prices. Mono-Si 166mm, 182mm, and 210mm modules were concluded on respective mainstream prices of roughly RMB 1.85/W, RMB 1.86/W, and RMB 1.87/W.
Regarding auxiliary materials, glass quotations had maintained sturdy this week on the lower end. Partial glass businesses have successively announced their price increment, which is not accepted by the downstream sector, and induced insignificant inflation dynamics as a result. 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were concluded at respective mainstream prices of roughly RMB 26/㎡ and RMB 20.5/㎡ this week.
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