On the afternoon of March 16, 2023, the "Global Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Market Development and Trends" online seminar, hosted by EnergyTrend, the new energy research center of TrendForce, was successfully concluded! The conference received strong support from outstanding companies in the industry such as Tongwei Solar, Jolywood, and SYL Battery(SYL) of Risen Group. Several business elites and industry analysts discussed topics such as forecasts on global PV and energy storage market installation, industry prices, supply and demand, and new technology developments, to deeply explore the industry's potential and provide forward-looking planning and thinking for companies in various links of the industry chain. The online seminar was well-received and generated enthusiastic feedback.
At the beginning, Sara Fan, the General Manager of TrendForce, made an opening speech, to show her sincere greeting and gratitude to all the attendees, and expressing her best wishes for the development of the pv and energy storage industries. Following that, representatives of business elites and TrendForce analysts delivered splendid speeches successively.
TrendForce: Polyslicon prices are declining, and overseas production capacity for modules is accelerating expansion.
Faye Wang, the Market Director of New Energy Research Center of TrendForce, shared the trend of each links of the global PV industry in 2023. TrendForce predicts that in 2023, in the main industry chain, the supply of polysilicon is very sufficient and will gradually enter the surplus stage. In terms of silicon wafers, wafers will continue to develop toward large sizes, thinning and N-type in 2023. But affected by the tight supply of high-purity quartz sands for crucibles,the actual output will be limited.
In terms of solar cells, in the second half of 2022, the production capacity newly built mainly depended on new technologies. However, the production capacity of new technologies will be mainly released intensively in the second half of 2023. So in the first half of 2023, large-sized PERC cells will still show a tight-supply trend. In terms of modules, global module capacity will reach 853 GW by the end of 2023.
Chart: Global demand for PV installed capacity in 2023 will be 330 GW - 350 GW
In terms of auxiliary materials, the shortage of PV-level EVA particles will continue. POE particles are highly dependent on overseas imports. While with the accelerated capacity release of N-type products in the second half of the year, the demand for POE particles will gradually increase and the shortage situation will be worse. But it can’t be ignored that stimulated by high prices, the actual output of each link has a certain upward elasticity. Judging from the actual output in the industry chain, TrendForce estimate the global demand for PV installed capacity in 2023 will be 330 GW - 350 GW.
Tongwei Solar: Innovatively adopted the “H + S” technology to create full-black bifacial module with“small body but big energy”
At present, the development of N-type components has seen an accelerated period, and the product share continues to grow. Aran Huang, Shingled Sales Department Product Manager of Tongwei Solar, introduced that Tongwei responds to market demand to create Terra N module, the full-black bifacial module with “small body but big energy”. Terra N module has advantages such as lower degradation, optimized temperature coefficient, higher bifacial rate, high power and high efficiency for the applications of the high-end distributed market.
Chart: Tongwei’s Terra N Performance
Innovation is the first driving force leading the development of enterprises. Tongwei has innovatively adopted the “H + S” technology which means to combine the “Half-cut” cell with the “Shingled” encapsulation to create delicate small-version modules with high power and efficiency. So it can meet application requirements in multiple scenarios. Compared with P-type modules, Terra N modules have a smaller size, higher power and an increased efficiency of about 1.2%. Moreover, their transportation cost, BOS cost, and LCOE all decrease a lot, so the yield rate are improved effectively.
Jolywood: mesh transparent backsheet single-glass bifacial module has 1.29% higher average power generation than double-glass modules.
Now, module technologies are gradually moving towards large size, bifacial, and higher efficiency, and the market share of bifacial modules continues to increase. For bifacial modules, Jolywood launched a series of transparent backsheet with higher power and reliability. Compared with double-glass modules, mesh transparent backsheet single-glass bifacial modules are significantly lighter by about 20%, which will lead to lower costs of transportation and installation.
Chart: according to the data, the transparent backsheet module has a higher power gain than double-sided modules.
According to the power generation data, for the same material and the same area, when mesh transparent backsheet modules are compared with double-glass modules, their average power generation is 1.29% higher, leading to more revenue. This means that, for a 1GW power station, after 30-year operation, transparent backsheet modules will lead to around 183 million yuan revenues. In addition to common transparent backsheet type white mesh modules, Jolywood team worked with module factories to develop transparent backsheet type with black mesh. This is more popular in high-end markets, such as Europe, America, Japan, etc.
TrendForce: TOPCon will be prioritized for large-scale mass production and the module power will fully reach above 600W.
In 2022, China's photovoltaic industry continued to make great strides, with new technologies such as large sizes, HJT, and TOPCon further developing, driving the improvement of innovation capabilities in the PV industry. April Zou, an analyst from TrendForce, shared the development and trend in market of advanced PV technologies in 2023, mainly analyzing the development and trend of advanced technologies in various links of the industry chain. In terms of wafers, N-type wafers have a price premium of about 6%. At present, the overall output of N-type wafers is still low without scale effect for the time being. With the mass production of TOPCon cells, it’s estimated that in 2023, the proportion of N-type wafers will rise to approximately 17%.
Chart: Global Market Share Forecast for Different Types of Wafers from 2021 to 2026 (Unit: %)
In terms of cells, technologies for N-type cells are in full bloom,and TOPCon occupies the mainstream position. The cost of HJT per watt is high. This is still the main factor restricting its capacity expansion. In the future, cost reduction and efficiency increase will still be the key to its large-scale expansion of production capacity. In 2023, the expansion of domestic XBC technology will mainly depend on the large-scale production expansion of leading enterprises. In terms of module technical routes, TOPCon will be prioritized for large-scale mass production and the module power will fully reach above 600 W. TOPCon technology has entered the bonus period of the promotion. So N-type TOPCon modules is expected to achieve a higher premium at home and abroad.
SYL of Risen Energy: All-in-One C&I energy storage system can realize plug-and-play.
With the rapid development of the energy storage industry, commercial and industrial energy storage is known as the next "golden track" due to its extensive and diverse application scenarios. In China, with the widening of the peak-valley tariff difference in the future, C&I energy storage system can not only be used for self-consumption, effectively reducing electricity costs, but also be as an uninterrupted backup power source to avoid electricity consumption restrictions caused by power limits. SYL’s product lines are much abundant. From C&I energy storage to large-scale energy storage, from air cooling to liquid cooling, from cabinet to container, we have all corresponding product lines for them.
Chart: All-in-One C&I energy storage system of SYL of Risen Energy
SYL has launched an All-in-One C&I energy storage system, integrating long-life cell energy storage converter, battery management system and thermal management system into one set of equipment. This system can realize plug-and-play with flexible installation and easy maintenance, and supports multi-cabinet to meet the needs of medium and large C&I. Stacy Si, Marketing Manager of the Energy Storage Business Unit of Risen, says, in the past three years, their footprints have spread all over Europe, the US, Asia and many other countries, and all products sold overseas cohere with the standards of IEC and UL. For fields requiring higher fire protection standards in states such as California and New York, SYL have added standards for explosion-proof design to ensure product reliability and market recognition.
TrendForce: the forecast of installationsy in key regional markets of PV and energy storage in 2023
TrendForce analyst, Danis Ho shared the forecast of installed capacity in key regional markets worldwide in 2023. From photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage, he respectively expounded the forecast of installed capacity demand and analyze the major driving factors. Overall, in 2023, the global installation of PV and energy storage is expected to achieve high growth. Key regional markets such as China, the US and Europe have high growth potential. Supply chain problems will be alleviated to some extent. Part of the installed capacity demand restrained by the international environment and the high industry chain price will be released in 2023.
In terms of PV, 2023, as the expanded polysilicon production capacity is gradually released, the price of the industry chain will return to rationality. TrendForce predicts in 2023, the demand for global PV installation will continue to flourish, and the new installation is expected to reach 351 GW, a year-on-year increase of approximately 53.4%. In terms of energy storage, In 2023, as the cost of energy storage systems falls, various countries will release incentive policies on a large scale. TrendForce predicts the global demand for installed energy storage capacity in 2023 will further grow, and the new installations will reach 35 GW and 78 GWh.
Chart: the new installation is expected to reach 351 GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of approximately 53.4%
Chart: the new global installations of energy storage will reach 35 GW and 78 GWh (Neutral expectat)
In recent years, various policies have provided core guidance for the scale, industrialization, and market-oriented development of the PV and energy storage industries, promoting the rapid development of these industries in China. China's PV and energy storage industries are now entering an important development cycle, with strong demand and advantageous supply. We should seize opportunities and explore new directions for industry development!
Thanks again for the strong support from Tongwei Solar, Jolywood, and SYL of Risen Energy, and thanks to all industry professionals for their wonderful sharing. In the future, TrendForce will host special seminars according to market changes and look forward to seeing everyone again.