Against the backdrop of heightened emphasis on carbon peak and carbon neutrality, various regions worldwide have introduced favorable photovoltaic (PV) policies, leading to an unprecedented surge in demand for PV installations. Remarkably, China witnessed the installation of a staggering 78.42GW of new PV capacity during the first half of 2023, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of 154%. This trend is mirrored in other key markets such as Europe, the United States, India, and South Africa, where the demand for PV installations continues to experience robust expansion. According to projections by TrendForce, the global PV new installation capacity is poised to reach an estimated 388GW in 2023, signifying a substantial year-on-year growth of 50%.
Forecasts on Global PV Newly Added Installed Capacity From 2023 to 2027 Unit:GW
During the first half of 2023, the gradual release of polysilicon production capacity has contributed to alleviating the supply bottleneck. This has consequently led to a downward trend in the overall prices within the industry chain. Notably, since the close of June, large-scale commencement of customer projects has remained relatively limited, and the competitive landscape among module companies is intensifying. Furthermore, the trajectory of bidding prices continues its decline, reaching an unprecedented low with the lowest bid price plummeting below RMB 1.2 per watt. The overall price of current industry chain has bottomed out, thus yielding heightened profit margins for terrestrial PV power plants. The subdued installed demand, once restrained by elevated module prices in 2022, is anticipated to be fully unleashed. This release is projected to breathe new life into the demand for modules, potentially marking a substantial rebound in the market.
According to research statistics compiled by TrendForce, the estimated rankings of China’s PV module enterprises’ shipments in the first half of 2023 have recently been unveiled. The specific and exact shipment figures are derived from data disclosed in the 2023 half-year reports of each respective enterprise. Notably, the top four positions are secured by JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, LONGi, and JA Solar, with their shipments all surpassing the impressive milestone of 20GW. Furthermore, Canadian Solar, Risen Energy, Astronergy, and Tongwei have also demonstrated robust performance, each boasting shipments exceeding the 10GW mark. Among these, newcomers in the module sector like Tongwei and Das Solar have shown significant upward trajectories. Despite facing a series of overseas challenges, including trade barriers and other nations’ support for their domestic PV industry chains, most first-tier and quasi-leading companies have managed to uphold relatively substantial shares in the global market.
A particularly noteworthy example is Risen Energy, whose overseas sales volume accounted for over 60% of the total, thus providing a robust foundation for its annual performance. As for the domestic market, the first half of this year has exhibited a positive trend in China’s PV industry demand, with newly added installed capacity surpassing initial projections.
When we turn our gaze toward the prospects of 2024, it is anticipated that module prices will undergo a decline, potentially reaching an approximate threshold of RMB 1.2 per watt. In addition, the anticipation arises that customer demand will surge to full activation, further enhancing the global installed PV demand. This, in turn, will amplify the intensity of competition among module companies, culminating in a heightened state of rivalry. As the industry readies itself for this fierce contest, questions loom large: Who possesses the prowess to triumph amidst this challenging environment? Which companies will surge ahead with vigor? And ultimately, who shall emerge triumphant atop this competitive fray? The responses to these pressing inquiries remain veiled in anticipation, awaiting the unfolding of events in the times to come.