By the close of 2023, China had notched up an impressive cumulative installed capacity of 31.39GW/66.87GWh in new energy storage projects, surpassing the 14th Five-Year Plan target two years ahead of schedule. In the same year, domestic energy storage installations soared to 22.60GW/48.70GWh, boasting a staggering year-on-year growth of over 260%. Delving into application scenarios and geographical distribution, as of the year-end 2023, cumulative installations of domestic new energy distribution storage stood at approximately 12.36GW, predominantly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu province. Additionally, independent and shared energy storage installations reached 15.39GW, with a major presence in Shandong, Hunan, and Ningxia province.
In recent years, the primary impetus driving the development of domestic energy storage has been the mandatory distribution of new energy, particularly photovoltaics led by large-scale energy storage. Considering the current landscape of new energy development in China, encompassing installations and consumption, coupled with the rapid emergence of industrial and commercial energy storage, TrendForce anticipates China's new energy storage installations in 2024 to hit 29.2GW/66.3GWh. This projection signifies a robust uptick of approximately 46% and 50%, underscoring sustained high growth in the sector.
Similar to the PV industry, despite robust demand-side growth, competition on the supply side has intensified considerably. Furthermore, the bidding prices for domestic energy storage systems continue to decline, signaling an escalating price war. Given this scenario, enterprises within the energy storage industry chain should hasten their global expansion efforts and fortify their presence in overseas markets. Currently, the overseas large-sized energy storage market poses a relatively high threshold. Therefore, forward-thinking leading enterprises that strategically position themselves in advance stand to gain a competitive advantage and significant benefits in the overseas market. In the foreseeable high-speed growth trajectory, what trends can we anticipate in the new energy storage industry this year?
TrendForce reports that the demand for industrial and commercial energy storage, as well as large-sized energy storage in China, is rapidly increasing, resulting in a steady expansion of their market share. Concerning industrial and commercial energy storage, the widening gap in peak and off-peak electricity prices, propelled by ongoing electricity reforms, is fostering stable and substantial demand from industrial and commercial entities. Consequently, the economic viability of energy storage deployment is high in this sector, and a corresponding increase in industrial and commercial energy storage is expected. On the large-sized energy storage front, the imperative lies in enhancing large-scale installations, with grid-side energy storage dominating the demand in this category. Conversely, a surge in incremental growth for household energy storage is still not evident in the short term.
As countries expedite their energy transition efforts, energy storage assumes a crucial strategic position, underscoring its undeniable importance and necessity. Currently, the new energy storage industry is in its nascent stages, experiencing rapid changes across various facets. Overall, in 2024, the global newly installed capacity of energy storage is projected to decelerate, returning to a more measured and rational growth trajectory after a period of explosive expansion.