Annual new installations of new energy storage
Currently, the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea and other major economies focus on the development of new energy storage industry as a national or regional strategy. China has also accelerated to promote the rapid development of new energy storage industry for the construction of a new energy system and carbon peak carbon neutral goals. 2023, the new domestic installed capacity of new energy storage of is about 22.6GW, and the average length of time of energy storage is about 2.1 hours. With the further implementation of policies, the decline of cost and the continues improvement, new energy storage will be more able to meet the power generation side, grid side, user side of the power storage needs. It is expected that in 2025, the annual new installations of new energy storage globally and in China may exceed 60GW and 31GW respectively, and are expected to reach 67GW and 35GW.
Chart: Forecast on global and domestic new energy storage installations from 2023 to 2030 (Unit: GW)
Market share of different new energy storage technologies
In 2023, lithium-ion battery energy storage still keeps an absolutely dominant position in the new installed capacity of new energy storage, and the market share will further increase to nearly 99%. Due to the huge large advantages of China's lithium-ion energy storage industry in terms of technology, cost and production, it is expected that the proportion of lithium-ion energy storage will remain high in the next few years. At the same time, the rapid development of technologies such as compressed air energy storage and liquid flow battery energy storage will do good to the increase of new energy storage installations. In the long term, as decarbonisation becomes more stringent, fluctuating renewable energy generation will rapidly replace fossil fuels, and the lower energy cost of long-term energy storage technology is becoming more and more critical.
Chart: Trend of market share of different technologies in the new installation of new energy storage from 2023 to 2030 (Unit: %)
Percentage of different lithium energy storage temperature control technology
At present, lithium iron phosphate battery technology is the dominant technology in China's lithium battery market. Lithium iron phosphate battery storage is an example to analyse the trend of the series of indicators. Lithium batteries require high operating temperatures, and the optimal operating temperature helps lithium batteries to improve efficiency, extend the time of use and ensure safety. Therefore, the temperature control system has become a key in the industry chain, and the mainstream technology route is air-cooled and liquid-cooled. In 2023, China's lithium storage temperature control technology in liquid-cooled accounted for about 85%, and it is expected to increase to more than 95% after 2024.
Chart: Trend of market share of different temperature control technology in the new installation of new energy storage from 2023 to 2030 (Unit: %)
Annual average price of lithium-ion energy storage system
Since 2023, under the influence of multiple factors such as the super-expected fall in the price of upstream raw materials, the rapid release of production and the acceleration of technological iteration, the winning price of China's energy storage battery system has continued to decline. In December 2023, the average price of China's lithium-ion energy storage system has fallen below 0.8 RMB/Wh (2 hours), and the annual average price of lithium-ion energy storage system is about 1.1 RMB/Wh. It is expected that the cost of lithium will continue to decline in the medium and long term, laying a better foundation for the solution of the problem of profitability of commercialised energy storage applications.
Chart: 2023-2030 China's lithium-ion energy storage system price trend (Unit: RMB/Wh)
Source：Translation From CPIA