Polysilicon：
Polysilicon prices have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 58/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 56/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 68/KG.
Based on recent trading activities, transactions involving polysilicon remain stagnant. Both N-type and P-type polysilicon transactions are at a standstill, with P-type transactions sluggish due to high downstream sector inventories. Consequently, polysilicon enterprises are poised to face mounting inventory levels. In terms of supply, the production landscape within the polysilicon sector has undergone significant shifts. Downstream customers increasingly favor low-quality P-type polysilicon to mitigate costs, leading to a gradual decline in the production proportion of N-type polysilicon. However, by the end of the second quarter, the imminent addition of new polysilicon capacity will exacerbate oversupply concerns. Additionally, polysilicon suppliers face heightened pressure amid fluctuations in industrial silicon prices. On the demand side, dwindling profits for wafer manufacturers, attributed to both price fluctuations and high inventory levels, translate to significantly reduced demand for polysilicon.
In summary, ingot manufacturers have all but ceased polysilicon purchases, with only existing orders being fulfilled in the polysilicon sector. Most ingot manufacturers now adopt a weekly purchasing strategy based on their specific demand levels. This week, polysilicon prices across the board have declined, with N-type polysilicon prices dropping below RMB 68/Kg. Further declines in polysilicon prices are anticipated as supply-demand imbalances persist within the polysilicon sector.
Wafer:
The prices of wafer have declined throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.90/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 2.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.80/Pc and G12 N-type is priced at RMB 2.80/Pc.
In terms of supply, ingot manufacturers are increasingly inclined to reduce their production. While some tier-2 manufacturers are indeed scaling back, others persist with high operation rates. Presently, wafer inventory stands at approximately 4 billion pieces. Despite potential declines in wafer costs with a higher proportion of doped materials in P-type polysilicon, many wafer manufacturers still find themselves in the red, prompting gradual production cuts. Turning to demand, high inventory turnover days persist, exacerbating the gap between wafer supply and demand, despite the anticipated month-over-month increase in downstream cell sector production. Consequently, the growing demand can only marginally contribute to stabilizing wafer prices. In essence, both P-type and N-type wafer prices remain below their production costs. Compounding this issue, transactions involving P-type wafers are dwindling, making them niche products catering to only a fraction of customers. Conversely, N-type wafer prices are poised to decrease further due to supply-demand imbalances. Moreover, manufacturers grappling with continual losses and cash flow challenges may halt production and liquidate their production lines.
In conclusion, the challenges facing the wafer sector mirror those of the cell sector, characterized by a swift process of capacity clearing.
Cell:
Cell prices have maintained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.390/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.380/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.47/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.
In the realm of supply, disruptions such as procurement delays, integration challenges, and production halts are becoming commonplace in the cell sector. Some multinational companies are even ceasing production altogether due to sustained losses. Meanwhile, leading manufacturers are swiftly seizing opportunities to integrate potential capacity at lower prices, thereby expanding their high-efficiency N-type cell capacity and reducing equipment investment costs. Consequently, the second and third quarters emerge as pivotal periods for upgrading P-type cell capacity. TrendForce's analysis suggests that nearly a quarter (24%) of existing P-type capacity is ripe for upgrading. However, while leading manufacturers are making swift progress in capacity upgrades, tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers are experiencing slower-than-expected progress due to financial constraints. Turning to demand, as customer demand gradually escalates, module production is set to increase month by month, thereby maintaining a positive outlook for cell demand. Nonetheless, demand for high-efficiency P-type cells remains sluggish, exerting significant price pressure. Conversely, demand for high-efficiency N-type cells is robust, with smooth shipment processes. Nevertheless, module manufacturers are keen on driving down cell prices to bolster profits, which may lead to ongoing negotiations on cell prices.
Module:
Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.93/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.95/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.94/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.97/W.
On the supply side, module manufacturers are gaining momentum to ramp up their planned production, with expectations of month-on-month increases starting from the second quarter onwards. However, a significant disparity persists between the operational capacities of leading manufacturers and those of tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers. Consequently, leading manufacturers are likely to secure orders more frequently this year.
Turning to the demand side, policies addressing consumption issues have been gradually introduced, providing clearer and more positive directives regarding the adaptive regulation of transmission grids and transactions in renewable power markets. This lays a solid foundation for future increases in the adoption of new energy installations.
Now, considering domestic customer markets, centralized PV projects are gradually commencing. With module prices relatively low, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for centralized PV projects stands to significantly improve through price regulation mechanisms. Thus, an increase in demand for modules is anticipated. In the overseas market, the second quarter witnesses heightened demand from European and United States customers, driving imports and, consequently, increased demand for modules.
In summary, module prices have remained stable this week, with potential increases contingent upon negotiations between customers and suppliers.