At the end of 2023, the winning data of energy storage bidding was weak, forming a poor expectation of demand in 2024. It takes 2 months for energy storage projects to confirm the winning bidder from bidding and 3months from winning the bid to construction. According to time estimatation of time, we believe that the EPC bidding data since August 23 and the EPC bidding data since October 23 can constitute a guide for domestic installation in 2024. Previously, the number of EPC tenders won in October 2023 and the cumulative EPC bidding volume from August to October both declined year-on-year, forming a weaker expectation of demand in 2024.
The winning data has recovered significantly in 2024, which is expected to support further high growth in domestic installed capacity in 2024. However, since November 2023, the bidding data has recovered significantly, and 2 months later, the bidding data in 24Q1 has increased significantly. According to our statistics, the total number of energy storage EPC bidding projects from 23Q4 to 24Q1 was 26.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%, and the total number of energy storage EPC bidding projects from August 23 to March 24 was 47.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 62.2%. We expect that domestic energy storage is expected to add 34GW/76GWh of installed capacity in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 51%/56%.
The market-oriented revenue sources of domestic independent energy storage are gradually enriched, and some areas have preliminary economics. With the decline in the development cost of energy storage projects and the enrichment of business models, according to EESA, the current IRR range of projects in Shandong, Ningxia, Henan, Mengxi, Shanxi and other regions with relatively mature independent energy storage business models is 4.6%-7.1%.