According to relevant surveys, South Africa's electricity market is large, and South Africa's electricity demand in 2022 will be 211TWh, ranking 22nd among the global economies, equivalent to 2.4% of China's electricity demand. However, the contry has a huge demand for electricity with a single power supply structure. As South Africa's largest single electricity provider, Eskom is responsible for about 95% of the country's electricity generation.
According to IRP-2019, South Africa's installed renewable energy capacity needs to account for 46.3% by 2030, and the cumulative installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic energy needs to reach 17.7GW and 8.3GW respectively.
Looking back at the actual installed capacity of various types of energy in 2022, TrendForce analysts said that the retirement of coal units is not optimistic, the new installed capacity of PV is basically at a standstill. The current energy structure of South Africa has deviated from the "IRP-2019" power plan formulated by the South African government, so the deployment progress of large-scale storage projects needs to be accelerated.
At present, the only solution to South Africa's energy dilemma in the short term is the energy storage system. It is necessary to accelerate the deployment progress of large-scale storage projects in order to release the demand for wind and solar power station projects and bring the pace of energy transition back on track.
TrendForce: There will be 3.83GWh new installed capacity in 2024.
South Africa is a typical energy storage market driven by rigid demand, TrendForce predicts that with the gradual emergence of large storage increments, South Africa's new installed capacity will still maintain a high growth rate in 24 years. It is expected to reach 1.46GW/3.83GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35%/35%, of which mainly household storage.
Chart: Forecast of new energy storage installations in South Africa
In terms of household, it is expected that the new household project installation in South Africa will reach 1.5GWh in 2024. The superimposed subsidy policy and increasingly serious power outages have stimulated a surge in household PV demand. In order to ensure stable power supply, the proportion of new household PV distribution and energy storage has increased significantly, and this phenomenon is expected to be more significant in 2024.
In terms of large-scale energy storage, the growth of South Africa's demand relies on government bidding. But at present, the construction progress of bid-winning projects is slowing down, and the demand release node is still unclear.