Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 39/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 37/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 35.5/KG.
Market Activity:
Trading volume remained subdued this week. Ingot growers' offering prices have fallen below most polysilicon manufacturers' production costs, making some polysilicon producers reluctant to accept such low offers.
Supply & Demand:
May's polysilicon output is expected to range between 45.0–45.5 GW. With downstream demand continuing to contract, polysilicon inventory levels are rising. Therefore, most manufacturers are showing reduced willingness to expand production. If the downward price trend persists, some may bring forward maintenance schedules to further tighten utilization rates.
Inventory:
Inventory increased week-over-week, reaching 280,000–290,000 tons.
Price Trend:
Prices for all N-type polysilicon categories continued to decline. Overseas prices are also showing weakness. Ingot producers are now offering rod-shaped polysilicon at 36–37 yuan/kg — 2-3 yuan/kg lower than quotes from top-tier suppliers. As these ingot plants are already operating at a cash loss, they are expected to push for even lower polysilicon prices to reduce their cost. Consequently, that will weigh on downward pressure on the polysilicon's pricing center.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.02/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.32/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.15/Pc.
Supply & Demand:
May's wafer production is expected to total 56–57 GW, down approximately 9% month-over-month. While production and sales appear in a soft balance, the actual reduction in customer demand is having a larger impact. Most cell manufacturers are relying on existing wafer inventory and taking a wait-and-see approach due to falling wafer prices. As a result, wafer inventory levels have risen again this month. Under the constraints of self-regulated production cut agreements, further reductions in wafer production remain possible to stabilize prices.
Price Trend:
Prices for 182mm and 210mm N-type wafers declined week-over-week. While leading suppliers are holding firm around 1.05 RMB/piece, some second- and third-tier producers are offloading inventory at even lower prices.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10L mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.265/W. The price of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.265/W.
Supply & Demand:
Monthly cell production is estimated at 60–61 GW, a decrease of about 7% compared to the previous month. Some manufacturers are taking the opportunity to cut production, but the reduction remains insufficient to offset the magnitude of demand contraction. Under the dual pressure of cash losses and inventory buildup, further production curtailments are likely in the near term.
Price Trend:
Prices for 183mm and 210R N-type cells continued to fall this week, with mounting pressure for cell makers to stop the decline.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.
Supply & Demand:
Module production for May is expected to fall within 60–61 GW, a month-over-month decrease of about 10.4%. Order renewal rates remains declining among mid- and low-tier manufacturers, leading to more significant production cuts.
Demand Outlook:
Domestic (China): Distributed solar PV projects are at a standstill, while stocking for utility-scale solar projects has yet to commence.
Overseas:
Europe: Imported module prices are volatile, and some distributors are concerned about price impacts from secondary sales.
India: Seasonal demand has declined post-fiscal year.
United States: DDP module prices have seen a slight increase, but with the tariff exemption period nearing its end, some developers are holding off on new purchases.
Price Trend:
In China, prices for utility-scale solar projects using 182–210mm TOPCon modules stabilized this week, averaging around 0.69 RMB/W. Distributed solar project pricing dropped to an average of 0.67 RMB/W.
Bifacial M10-TOPCon: Leading manufacturers' prices ranged from 0.64–0.74 RMB/W, with the overall price center moving lower.
Bifacial G12-HJT: Mainstream quotes were concentrated between 0.68–0.76 RMB/W.
While most module manufacturers have lowered their quotes, pricing overall remains disorderly. A sense of panic selling continues to weigh on the market.