From January to April 2025, newly installed solar power capacity reached 104.93 GW, with 45.22 GW added in April alone—essentially the highest monthly level of PV installations in the first half of any year on record. Following the end of the “4.30” and “5.31” installation rushes, prices across the photovoltaic industry chain—including wafers, cells, and modules—have stabilized after experiencing fluctuations. However, the polysilicon segment, already operating with negative cash flow, entered another downward price trend in mid-April, further deepening the industry’s challenges. Enterprises are actively adopting countermeasures in response.
In terms of production and operational strategies, some companies have opted for maintenance shutdowns, while others are implementing capacity replacements. As of May, the number of polysilicon producers has dropped from 13 to 11. For companies already operating at a stable low load, further reducing production would risk product stability and increase production costs. As a result, these companies tend to suspend production for maintenance. More shutdown and maintenance plans are expected in the coming months. Meanwhile, leading companies are actively replacing older production lines with smaller, better-performing ones, and have significantly lowered their expected annual output by nearly 100,000 tons.
Overall, the proactive adjustment of operating rates among polysilicon producers is conducive to alleviating the current supply-demand imbalance and stabilizing future market expectations. As of the end of April 2025, China’s polysilicon inventory stood at approximately 390,000 tons. Based on current downstream consumption, this volume could support more than three months of normal production. Monthly data shows that polysilicon supply and demand are largely balanced, with each month’s output essentially absorbed. However, the pace of depleting existing inventory remains slow.
According to publicly available company information, the vast majority of enterprises continue to offload inventory through the spot market. A few have started supplying to traders, but most show limited interest in participating in futures market deliveries. For example, Tongwei stated in its May 21 investor relations meeting that its inventory management strategy still focuses on normal spot market sales, with no plans to offload inventory through futures delivery channels.
In summary, with the installation rush now largely over and spot market demand limited, future inventory reduction is expected to proceed steadily and gradually. To address extreme market conditions, the industry association is actively communicating challenges and pain points to relevant government authorities and has proposed specific policy recommendations. With positive guidance at the national policy level and effective coordination by relevant enterprises, the polysilicon industry is expected to gradually return to a stable and rational market order, with long-term prospects remaining positive. Even if prices do not rebound in the short term, they are expected to gradually stabilize over time.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PtAs6xJKtXkHWK4rW37jAw