Polysilicon
This Week's Prices:
This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34.5/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32.0/KG and N-ype granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 31.5/KG.
Market Activity:
Polysilicon producers have raised their offer prices to RMB 45,000–50,000/ton, though no transactions have been seen within this price range yet. Nonetheless, polysilicon producers remain firm in maintaining their prices. Facing this pressure, downstream ingot (crystal pulling) anufacturers are at a crossroads—either wait and see or accept a small price uptick to "buy the dip" and restock. With both sides locked in a pricing tug-of-war, it’s likely that some downstream players may agree to slightly higher transaction prices to hedge against further price increases in the polysilicon sector.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, total polysilicon inventory across the sector has surpassed 370,000 tons, with a rising trend. With planned production expansions in July and simultaneous production cutbacks downstream, the supply-emand gap continues to widen. As a result, polysilicon inventory will likely remain under pressure this month.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Polysilicon producers are proceeding with scheduled production hikes. Meanwhile, wafer manufacturers have slowed procurement in an effort to stabilize inventories, leading to a further widening of the supply-demand imbalance. While polysilicon inventory continues to build up, the industry buzz around fighting against more intense competition has encouraged some polysilicon producers to tentatively raise prices. However, downstream wafer makers—currently operating under high losses—may struggle to accept sharp price increases. The extent of any upward movement in polysilicon price benchmarks will depend on how smoothly price hikes can be passed down to the wafer segment.
Price Trend:
Prices for all N-ype polysilicon categories held steady this week. From a macro perspective, the ongoing industry consolidation provides a policy-level roadmap for curbing excessive competition. However, actual implementation of those policies will take time. Considering various factors, a mild rebound in low-end polysilicon prices appears likely in the near term.
Wafers
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 0.88/Pc, while G12 N-ype wafer is priced at RMB 1.20/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.00/Pc.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Wafer manufacturers have significantly reduced production this month. Learning from last year's inventory surge caused by capacity expansion, maintaining stable inventory levels has become a shared goal in the wafer sector. Leading wafer producers have reportedly halt shipments in bid to raise prices, with specialized wafer producers following suit. Backed by a combination of healthy inventory levels, cost support at the cash-cost level, and policy-driven guidance, the momentum for wafer price increases is building. Consequently, wafer producers step up efforts to prop up prices.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, wafer inventory remains above 2 billion pieces. N-type 183mm wafers account for over 50% of this total. Additionally, with 210mm RN wafers ramping up in supply, signs of wafer inventory accumulation are also emerging.
Price Trend:
Prices for all wafer sizes held steady this week. Looking ahead, there is some expectation of a price rebound, although much will depend on downstream acceptance.
Cells
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.225/W. The price of G12 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.245W and that of G12R N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.245/W.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
For 183mm N-type cells, market demand has sharply declined, and prices hold but deals dry up. Recently, 183N cell manufacturers continue to cut prices to clear inventory. Meanwhile, the ramp-up of 210mm RN capacity through technical upgrades is further straining the supply-emand balance.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, specialized cell producers are holding around 10 days’ worth of inventory. However, production cuts by cell makers have fallen short of expectations, leading to increased inventory pressure and a clear trend of stockpiling.
Price Trend:
N-ype cell prices across all formats remained stable during the week. Looking ahead, cells face growing pressure to hold prices, with risks from rising inventories and weakening demand from the downstream module segment. The cell segment is under increasing pressure from both upstream and downstream segments.
Modules
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-lass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Top-tier manufacturers are faring better in getting orders, supported by deliveries for earlier C&I (commercial and industrial) solar PV projects still underway. In contrast, second- and third-tier module manufacturers face limited orders in near future and are forced to cut prices further to secure deals.
Price Trend:
Some Tier-1 suppliers and their distributors have responded to the policy of fighting back intense competition by tentatively raising quotes by RMB 0.01–.02/W. However, most other manufacturers have yet to follow suit. Lower-tier suppliers have even weaker bargaining power and continue to compete on price to win orders.
Overseas Demand:
Europe: Module prices in June were revised downward, with an influx of low-ost modules dragging the overall prices lower. As the summer holiday season approaches, demand is gradually tapering off.
India: Prices for DCR-compliant modules have edged up, driven by government-acked projects and the rising cost of some BOM affected by anti-dumping duties. However, prices for imported modules have dipped slightly due to excess supply.
United States: FOB (free on board) module prices have remained stable for now, but July and August mark a period of uncertainty due to shifts in trade policy. Therefore, market participants are