This week, the upward trend in polysilicon prices has further solidified. Unlike last week, when many companies raised their offers but saw few actual transactions, trading activity has significantly increased this week, with around six companies securing new orders. The overall transaction volume rose sharply compared to the previous week. Prices of concluded orders mostly fell at the extremes of the quoted range, showing a clear price divergence. This divergence stems mainly from two factors: some companies, benefiting from cost advantages such as captive power plants, can accept lower prices; meanwhile, several large manufacturers face higher overall costs due to low operating rates at specific production bases. However, their product quality and stable supply ensure downstream buyers are willing to pay higher prices.
The number of polysilicon producers in operation in China this week remained at nine. Among them, three companies have partially restarted some production lines or facilities, but this has had limited impact on July supply. Capacity is expected to gradually ramp up in August. According to production schedules, domestic polysilicon output is estimated at around 105,000 tons for July and will slightly increase to approximately 110,000 tons in August. Downstream demand during the same period is projected to remain at about 110,000 tons per month, indicating no immediate pressure from inventory buildup.
The price spread between reprocessed and standard-grade polysilicon reached as high as RMB 9,000/ton this week, but this is unlikely to persist. Two main factors contribute to this: first, as downstream players secure stable supply, cost-cutting pressures will drive them to prefer more competitively priced resources, leading wafer manufacturers to choose lower-priced orders—thereby pushing up the lower end of the transaction price range. Second, companies’ overall production costs are influenced by various factors such as electricity rates, energy consumption, and operating rates. A decline in comprehensive costs could push down the upper end of the price range. Therefore, the large price spread observed in this week’s orders is unlikely to be sustained, while the trend of a steady rise in average market prices appears more certain.
Although polysilicon prices have risen, the market fundamentals remain weak, with no substantial improvement in supply-demand dynamics. In the short term, polysilicon prices are expected to continue a mild upward trend with some fluctuations as the market adopts a wait-and-see approach. A more definitive price rebound may be triggered when some wafer manufacturers are forced to reduce or suspend production due to high raw material costs and sluggish downstream prices. As the supply-demand balance in the wafer segment improves and prices rebound, downstream players may become more accepting of higher polysilicon prices. At the same time, some polysilicon producers may be forced to suspend operations if high production costs prevent them from securing orders. With tightening supply, increased downstream acceptance, and improved market sentiment, the polysilicon market is likely to gradually return to rational and sustainable development.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/eoep_8IYYJa29UBUAtY_MQ