Polysilicon
Prices this week:
This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 45.0/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 43.0/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 42.0/KG.
Market Activity:
New orders were limited, with some ingot manufacturers still consuming earlier low-cost inventory. Currently, most buyers are purchasing based on their just-in-time demand. New deal prices ranged from RMB 45/kg to 49/kg, but many ingot makers blended low-cost polysilicon in their procurement, bringing the average price of mixed feedstock down to the RMB 43/kg to RMB45/kg range. Transactions were concentrated among leading polysilicon suppliers, while mid- and lower-tier producers saw weak trading.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, total polysilicon inventory stands at approximately 285,000 tons. Despite oversupply in the current month, polysilicon producers have begun offloading to traders dealing in both spot and futures markets, alleviating some inventory pressure.
Supply & Demand Outlook:
In August, total polysilicon supply is expected to reach 126,000 tons, with the production increase driven by the ramp-up of hydropower-based capacity from top-tier manufacturers. The recent price surge has also prompted some producers to restart idle capacity. On the demand side, ingot manufacturers are taking a cautious approach to production, leaving the overall supply-demand balance slightly turning loose. However, with futures prices still at elevated levels, polysilicon producers have shown stronger hedging interest and are increasingly shipping to futures traders to ease inventory pressure.
Price Trend:
N-type polysilicon prices continued to climb this week, although the pace of increase has slowed. Looking ahead, the upward momentum driven by anti-involution policy (against unreasonable price competition) expectations appears to be waning. Whether polysilicon prices can remain elevated will depend on the implementation of production control measures.
Wafers
Prices this week:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.55/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.35/Pc.
Supply & Demand:
The production of wafer manufacturers remains cautious in August, as they continue to follow a controlled output and price support strategy. Despite prior price hikes, some integrated and specialized wafer manufacturers have raised output. Nevertheless, top-tier producers remain restrained, resulting in no significant increase in total wafer output. Meanwhile, a rebound in downstream cell production has further improved supply-demand balance in the wafer segment.
Inventory:
Wafer inventory is trending downward, now sharply reduced to around 16 GW. Overseas demand for the 183N wafer format remains strong, helping clear related inventory.
Price Trend:
Prices for all wafer formats stabilized this week. With near-balanced supply and demand and strong discipline in domestic production control, wafer prices are expected to remain steady in the short term. The 183N format, supported by robust overseas demand, has seen inventory depletion accelerate and is expected to maintain upward price momentum.
Cells
Prices this week:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.295/W. The price of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W.
Supply & Demand:
August cell production is estimated at 57–58 GW, a slight month-on-month increase of 0.8%. Both wafer and cell segments are showing good production flexibility to match market demand. Although temporary demand spikes have occurred in some overseas markets due to tariff policies, most cell manufacturers remain cautious about expanding production given uncertainty around demand sustainability. Heightened global geopolitical and trade dynamics may cause greater fluctuations in market demand, requiring cell manufacturers to adopt more precise production strategies to avoid supply-demand mismatches.
Inventory:
This week, cell inventories at specialized cell makers dropped to around five days, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation. Some high-efficiency N-type cell formats are already facing tight supply.
Price Trend:
N-type cell prices trended higher this week. Surging demand for the 183mm N-type cell format has rapidly depleted inventories. Combined with the upcoming cancellation of Q4 export tax rebates, cell prices are expected to continue rising. The 210R/210N formats remain in a price negotiation phase and are likely to stay stable for now.
Modules
Prices this week:
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-glass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.
Supply & Demand:
Monthly module production is around 53 GW, with a slight month-on-month increase. However, order visibility remains weak. Coupled with continued cost pass-through from upstream segments, module makers are caught in a margin squeeze from both ends.
Price Trend:
Most transactions this week were still based on pre-agreed prices, but new orders saw across-the-board price hikes. Tier-1 module manufacturers are pushing aggressively for higher prices, with quoted prices now trending above RMB 0.70/W. However, actual deal prices remain in the RMB 0.65–0.70/W range.
Overseas Demand:
Europe: Prices continued to decline in July amid the summer holiday season, with subdued installation activity.
India: DCR module prices remained stable, but rising prices for imported cells may gradually feed through to module costs.
USA: FOB quotes were steady this week.
PV Glass
Prices this week:
The mainstream concluded price for 2.0mm double-coated PV glass is RMB 12.0/m², 3.2mm double-coated PV glass at RMB 18.5/m², and the price of 2.0mm backsheet PV glass (excluding processing fee) at RMB 11.5/m².
Supply & Demand:
Industry-wide supply contraction continues, with more production lines expected to scale back solar glass output. Meanwhile, downstream module manufacturers have begun stockpiling ahead of the anticipated peak season. As supply-demand conditions improve, solar glass makers are beginning to firm up prices.
Price Trend:
Module makers have started purchasing solar PV glass at lower prices, causing overall industry inventory to decline. Still, whether downstream can successfully pass on rising costs to end markets remains to be seen.