Polysilicon
Prices this week: This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 45.0/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 43.0/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 42.5/KG.
Market activity: Some leading polysilicon producers secured high-priced orders, but volumes were limited. Mainstream deals still feature small volumes at higher prices, often mixed with lower-priced polysilicon. Tier-2 and Tier-3 producers face greater difficulty in striking deals. With some production capacity resuming operations, polysilicon supply is likely to turn surplus further.
Inventory: As of this week, total polysilicon inventories stood at around 290,000 tons. Despite oversupply in August, polysilicon producers have begun shipping to futures and spot traders, partially easing inventory pressure. However, with new capacity ramping up in late August, polysilicon stocks are expected to rebound to over 400,000 tons by month-end.
Supply–demand outlook: Looking ahead to August, production bases of major polysilicon producers in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia are gradually seeing production resumption, with significant output gains expected. Around 100,000 tons of new capacity from recent market entrants is also scheduled to come online by month-end. Current market demand for polysilicon remains weak, limiting the absorption of additional upstream supply. The persistent supply–demand imbalance is gradually eroding the price-support momentum generated by anti-involution war policies.
Price trend: N-type polysilicon prices were flat this week and remain at elevated levels in the short term. However, with output still increasing, there will see growing uncertainty in the price stability in this segment.
Wafers
Prices this week: The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.55/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.35/Pc.
Supply–demand dynamics: The structural supply–demand balance is shifting. For 183 mm N-type wafers, monthly production plans have contracted. More importantly, as overseas customers are stockpiling, market demand for 1833mm N-type wafers has been rapidly driven up, creating a favorable market with strong price support. By contrast, for 210 mm N-type wafers (210R), output has increased while downstream demand remains sluggish, pushing inventory levels higher. If demand continues to weaken, price corrections may follow.
Inventory Dynamics: Current wafer inventories have fallen sharply to around 16 GW. Overseas demand for 183 mm N-type wafers remains strong, helping wafer makers to consume wafer inventory more rapidly.
Price trend: Prices across all wafer formats held firm this week. In the short term, overseas stocking will likely continue to support prices, but with the expected delay in export tax rebate removal and overseas demand returning to normal, wafer prices may come under pressure.
Cells
Prices this week: The mainstream concluded price for M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.295/W. The price of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W.
Supply–demand dynamics: Overseas stocking demand for cells is still ongoing but losing momentum. Demand for 183 mm N-type cells remains supportive in the short term, helping deplete inventories quickly. However, with overseas cell demand now coming off peak levels and module makers facing slim profit margins, pressure is mounting on cell prices.
Inventory: Specialized cell manufacturers' inventories continued to fall, down to around 8 GW. Yet, with downstream demand retreating, the risk of inventory build-up is re-emerging in the cell segment.
Price trend: N-type cell prices held steady across all formats this week, but some traders have begun lowering prices. Module makers are also ramping up price bargaining, increasing pressure on cell prices.
Modules
Prices this week: The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-glass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.
Supply–demand dynamics: Order visibility remains poor, and with upstream costs continuing to shift downward, module makers face a squeeze from both ends.
Price trend: New quotations have been raised across the board, with tier-1 module manufacturers taking a firm pricing stance, generally quoting RMB 0.70/W and above. However, actual transaction averages remain in the RMB 0.65–0.70/W range.
Overseas markets:
Europe: Module prices continued to decline in July, with summer holidays keeping installation activity subdued. India: DCR module prices remain stable, but rising import cell costs are likely to be passed through gradually. U.S.: FOB prices remain steady for now.