Polysilicon
Supply: The polysilicon market remains oversupplied, mainly because multiple producers have brought new capacity online and there are output increases from existing production lines. Monthly incremental polysilicon supply is expected to exceed 20,000 tons.
Demand & Inventory: Despite rising supply, market demand for polysilicon has not kept pace. Market transactions remain cautious, with downstream buyers largely adopting a wait-and-see approach and showing limited willingness to purchase. As a result, polysilicon inventories continue to build up and are projected to break above 400,000 tons by the end of the month. However, the increasing polysilicon inventory poses substantial downward pressure on prices.
Price Trend: Although the supply-demand dynamic is not very favorable, polysilicon prices remain sticky on the downside. Market sentiment has turned bullish, fueled by rumors of production cuts and expectations around the anti-irrational price competition policy. As a result, polysilicon quotations have generally climbed above RMB 50/kg. While actual transactions remain cautious, the market is currently in a stalemate, and short-term prices are expected to rebound slightly. However, if production-cut expectations do not materialize and polysilicon inventories continue to climb, this policy-driven rally could lose momentum.
Wafers
Supply: The wafer market shows structural oversupply, with total wafer inventories reaching around 20 GW, dominated by 210RN wafer format. The main cause is that some manufacturers are ramping up production of 210R and 210N, causing an oversupply of 210RN and worsening the supply-demand imbalance.
Demand: Market demand is relatively sluggish, with cell manufacturers purchasing cautiously on a need-basis. Therefore, the newly added 210RN capacity has not been fully absorbed, adding inventory pressure and failing to provide solid price support to wafer prices.
Price Trend: Despite oversupply and high inventories, wafer prices have risen abnormally. Under expectations of the anti-irrational price competition policy, leading producers adopted a united pricing strategy, jointly raising quotations by RMB 0.05/piece and successfully passing them downstream. In the short term, prices are unlikely to see major corrections, but the sustainability depends on the implementation of the policy. If policy enforcement falls short, prices may face a correction once market sentiment cools.
Cells
Supply & Inventory: The cell segment is showing slight inventory build-up, but overall stock levels remain healthy. A clear structural divergence is seen: supply of 210RN has increased significantly, leading to inventory accumulation, while output of 183N continues to decline, maintaining a balanced supply-demand relationship. Under the anti-irrational price competition policy expectations, some integrated cell manufacturers are planning to raise production in September, which could reshape supply dynamics in this segment.
Demand: Customer demand varies across cell sizes. 210RN demand growth lags behind supply, leading to a weaker supply-demand balance. 210N remains relatively balanced thanks to solar PV project deliveries, providing solid price support. 183N, despite weakening overseas demand, maintains a healthy supply-demand balance due to reduced production.
Price Trend: Despite a slight increase in inventory, cell prices have held firm and even risen. The main reason is that rising upstream polysilicon and wafer prices directly pushed up cell production costs, creating strong support for price increases. Under anti-irrational price competition policy expectations, cell makers actively followed with price hikes, with 210N taking the lead. In conclusion, driven by costs and policy sentiment, cell prices show no signs of near-term downward adjustment.
Modules
Supply: September production plans indicate a slight increase in module output, suggesting module manufacturers remain confident in market prospects, with capacity utilization rates staying relatively high.
Price Trend: Module prices are underpinned by multiple strong drivers, leaving little room for short-term downward movement. In addition, under the anti-irrational price competition policy framework, a tacit consensus has formed to avoid below-cost competition, effectively eliminating low-price bidding. As we can see, in major tenders by PV utilities such as China Huadian Corporation and China Resources, manufacturers significantly raised their offers, further reinforcing the upward momentum in module prices.