Polysilicon
Supply & Inventory:
Total polysilicon inventory remains above 430,000 tons, staying at a record high. No destocking inflection point has emerged, and polysilicon inventories continue to build. On the supply side, amid a pronounced supply–demand mismatch, polysilicon suppliers have begun actively reducing output, signaling that the industry has entered a substantial production-cut phase aimed at stabilizing prices.
Demand:
Persistently weak demand for polysilicon has led to continuous price declines downstream. The resulting chill has been transmitted to the midstream segments, prompting some wafer manufacturers to gradually reduce output, which in turn has further weakened procurement demand for polysilicon and exerted sustained downward pressure on polysilicon prices.
Price Outlook:
Polysilicon prices remained weak but steady this week. The main support lies on the cost floor of the supply chain. Specifically, wafer prices have already fallen to cash-cost levels, meaning current pricing is largely held up by higher polysilicon costs. If polysilicon prices were to decrease now, midstream prices could collapse, pushing the industry back into another vicious price war. At present, the relative firmness of polysilicon pricing is providing a critical bottom support for the entire supply chain.
Short term, the market is likely to remain in a stalemate of weak supply and weak demand, with prices expected to stay at a weak and steady level.
Wafers
Supply & Inventory:
Wafer inventories have accumulated to roughly 24 GW, indicating immense destocking pressure. With both inventory buildup and weak market demand, the supply side has begun making adjustments, and some wafer manufacturers have already implemented output cuts. However, the downstream cell segment is also cutting cell production, resulting in the simultaneous contraction across the industrial chain. Therefore, the supply–demand imbalance in the wafer segment has been not yet effectively corrected.
Demand:
Demand for wafers continues to soften, with structural pressure across different wafer formats. Output reductions among downstream cell makers have weakened their procurement demand for wafers. By size segment, 210N wafers are seeing particularly sharp demand declines and strong shipment pressure. Mainstream sizes are also lackluster, with the market caught in a negative cycle of seeing weak demand.
Price Trend:
Attempts by tier-1 wafer manufacturers to support prices have failed. Market prices continue to edge down and have now reached the cash-cost bottom, entering a stage of prices bottoming out. While wafer prices remain weak, further downside is limited due to cash-cost constraints and the supporting effect of relatively firm polysilicon pricing. In the short term, wafer price movement will depend heavily on whether polysilicon prices can remain stable.
Cells
Supply & Inventory:
Cell inventory turnover days have lengthened to more than 7 days. To cope with rising inventories and weak demand, supply-side contraction signals are emerging. Leading cell manufacturers are showing clear signs of production cuts. Affected by increasing losses, cell makers have a strong inclination to hold the price floor, hoping for coordinated supply-side action to stabilize the market.
Demand:
Demand remains broadly weak. On the one hand, downstream module demand continues to go down. On the other hand, it is because overseas procurement—especially from India—has dropped sharply. As a result, 210N cell demand has seen the steepest decline.
Price Trend:
With demand faltering, cell prices continue to slide. Current price levels are already very close to cash costs, leaving almost no room for further decline. Whether solar cell prices can stabilize or rebound will depend on the actual implementation of industrywide production cuts, and the price trajectory of upstream wafers.
PV Modules
As the whole solar industry enters the traditional winter off-season, the module segment faces severe supply–demand challenges. Both domestic and overseas installation demand are weakening.
In China, affected by weather conditions, utility-scale solar PV project construction in northern regions is nearing completion, sharply reducing rigid demand for large-format modules. With insufficient annual orders, module manufacturers face widespread order scarcity. To mitigate inventory risks, the supply side has implemented significant production cuts. Current spot prices of modules have fallen further to RMB 0.65–0.68/W.
Short-term Outlook:
Demand in December is expected to weaken further. With shrinking market space, module makers will likely continue adopting a “production-cut-for-price-support” defensive strategy, attempting to sustain the price floor through aggressive supply-side tightening during the demand trough.