Polysilicon
Supply–demand dynamics:
The market is currently showing a pattern of seeing weak demand but rising supply. On the demand side, downstream ingot (crystal-pulling) companies have sharply reduced production and thus remain cautious in procurement, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the supply side, new capacity ramp-up and some plants restarting after maintenance have resulted in a slight increase in polysilicon output. Current orders are highly concentrated among top-tier producers, with most transactions occurring with leading manufacturers, while second-tier producers face significant pressure in securing orders.
Inventory:
Industry-wide polysilicon inventories remain above 450,000 tons and continue to rise. Notably, inventory concentration is extremely high, with most stockpiles held by top-tier producers. This concentrated structure gives leading companies strong control over pricing and market influence.
Price outlook:
Despite the fundamentally imbalanced supply–demand situation, polysilicon prices have shown strong resilience in the short term, supported by the high concentration of market inventories in the hands of major producers and strengthened further by the rollout of the new polysilicon purchase-and-storage (reserve) platform. In the longer term, if the reserve policy operates effectively and helps regulate market liquidity, polysilicon prices may even see a rebound.
Wafers
Supply–demand dynamics:
The market is experiencing a significant “dual weakness” in both supply and demand. On the demand side, downstream demand is rapidly declining, and constrained by their own cost pressures, buyers are continuously pushing wafer prices downward. On the supply side, the entire industry has been forced to implement major production cuts, averaging around 15% overall. Approaches differ across wafer manufacturers: integrated manufacturers have cut output less aggressively, whereas specialized large wafer producers have reduced production by more than 20%.
Inventory structure:
Industry wafer inventories continue to accumulate at high levels, now surpassing 25 GW. Structurally, the majority of excess wafers is concentrated in 210mm RN-format wafers, and with demand weakening, the pressure to digest inventory remains severe.
Price outlook:
Although low-price dumping by a few players has dragged wafer prices down, current prices have already approached the cash-cost floor. Combined with expectations that upstream polysilicon prices may stabilize, wafer prices have very limited room to decline further and are now entering a bottoming phase. Once wafer inventories are effectively reduced, the wafer segment is likely to see a new upward cycle, supported by a recovery in polysilicon prices.
Cells
Supply–demand dynamics:
Under severe shipment difficulties and persistent oversupply—exacerbated by sharply rising silver paste costs—cell manufacturers have broadly adopted aggressive production cuts as a defensive strategy. Leading companies have reduced output even more decisively. The entire sector is relying on supply-side contraction to cope with the demand downturn.
Inventory:
Cell inventories have risen substantially, with turnover days now reaching around 10 days. With downstream orders remaining weak, cell inventories are still climbing.
Price outlook:
Although supply–demand relation remain weak, cell prices have nearly reached cash-cost levels, and downward momentum has largely been exhausted. Supported by high silver paste costs, the launch of the polysilicon reserve platform, and leading players refusing low-price orders (refusing to sell to stabilize prices), the market is showing signs of forming a price floor. In the short term, further price declines are unlikely. In the long term, cell prices will mainly track upstream raw-material price movements.
PV Modules
The deepening of the seasonal off-peak period has led to a marked decline in market demand, causing module manufacturers’ order volumes to fall sharply. Facing a demand downturn, the industry as a whole has shifted to a defensive production strategy, with most companies expected to adopt strategies such as cutting the production cuts and producing products based on orders to better align supply with subdued market demand.
Module prices continue to trend downward, with low-priced deals taking on an increasingly larger share. Mainstream module prices have generally fallen to around RMB 0.65/W, while some extreme low-end deals have touched RMB 0.62/W. Looking ahead to Q1, the overall market will remain under seasonal pressure; despite manufacturers’ intentions to stabilize prices, module prices are unlikely to improve in the short term and are expected to remain weak and at low levels.