Polysilicon
Boosted by the implementation of the polysilicon purchase-and-storage (reserve) platform, polysilicon producers have collectively adopted a firm price-support stance, sharply lifting quotation prices to RMB 65/kg. However, due to the lack of effective downstream demand, actual polysilicon transactions are still largely confined to the previous range of RMB 51–53/kg. Even so, this move has sent a clear signal that prices have bottomed out.
From a cost-structure perspective, while polysilicon prices are unlikely to jump rapidly to RMB 65/kg in the near term, policy backing has further solidified the industry’s price floor and decisively reversed earlier expectations of prolonged and gradual declines. As excess polysilicon capacity is gradually absorbed and the reserve mechanism begins to take effect, polysilicon prices have entered a phase in which upside potential outweighs downside risk, pointing to a volatile but upward trend going forward.
Wafers
Driven by sharp production cuts by wafer producers bottom-fishing restocking by downstream cell makers, wafer inventories have been rapidly drawn down in recent weeks, falling below 15 GW, a historic low. This shift in the supply–demand balance prompted wafer manufacturers to enter a “warehouse-lock and price-increase” mode as of yesterday, pushing market negotiations into an intense phase. The industry is now closely watching the outcome of the coordination meetings, with the final price direction to be determined by collective alignment across the solar value chain.
Although wafer manufacturers’ price expectations reach as high as RMB 0.30/W, achieving such increases in the short term will be challenging due to market acceptance limits and price-transmission constraints. That said, supported by the current low-inventory dividend, an upward wafer price trend is now firmly in place. In the near term, per-wafer prices are expected to see a rigid recovery of at least RMB 0.05/W. Overall, the wafer segment has taken the lead in emerging from the prolonged price-decline cycle and is now in a rebound phase driven by inventory clearance.
Cells
A strong wave of price hikes erupted in the cell segment this week. Leading cell manufacturers were the first to halt deliveries on low-priced orders below RMB 0.30/W, triggering second- and third-tier players to follow suit by locking warehouses. Under the dual pressure of surging wafer and silver paste costs, combined with aggressive production cuts, cell manufacturers have adopted a resolute stance on price increases. Top players such as Tongwei have raised offers to above RMB 0.32/W, and transaction prices at RMB 0.30/W have already gained initial market acceptance, with the price center continuing to move upward.
Nevertheless, internal value-chain negotiations remain intense. Weak market demand has led module makers to resist aggressive cell price hikes, resulting in significant divergences at the quotation stage. Although inventory levels in the cell segment have not changed dramatically, cells — serving as the key cost-pass-through hub — possess the strongest follow-up momentum. The market is currently in a critical wait-and-see phase, with most players focused on the outcome of the December 18 industry self-discipline meeting. After the meeting, cell prices are expected to firmly establish a floor above RMB 0.30/W and move in tandem with upstream price fluctuations.
PV Modules
Despite currently sluggish market demand keeping actual module transaction prices largely flat, price-support sentiment has strengthened noticeably. Leading manufacturers, represented by LONGi, have taken the lead in announcing price increases of RMB 0.04/W, aiming to leverage brand influence to guide the market price center higher. As year-end installation project delivery rushes come to a close, ultra-low-priced previous orders are being phased out more quickly, creating room for an eventual recovery in average selling prices.
At present, module prices remain constrained by weak market demand, and short-term upward adjustments lack strong fundamental support, functioning more as passive defense in response to upstream cost increases. However, as price floors across upstream segments become progressively more solid, sentiment in the module market is gradually shifting from cautious to bullish. After a period of bargaining and destocking in Q1, and with seasonal demand recovery alongside full cost pass-through from upstream, module prices are expected to achieve a genuine upward price-pass-through in Q2, finally moving out of the current loss-making range.