Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventory remains elevated at around 520,000 MT,sustaining persistent stockpile pressure.As mainstream polysilicon producers restart and ramp capacity,July output is expected to approach 110,000 MT,adding substantial incremental supply to the market and further widening the supply-demand surplus.Upstream-downstream price negotiations have grown increasingly contentious,with market quotes continuing to slide.Some tier-1 producers are holding quotes at around CNY 31/kg,while tier-2 manufacturers have dropped to CNY 30/kg and below.However,downstream ingot(crystal-pulling)facilities show little appetite to transact,and sustained pushback is forcing the raw material makers to offer further concessions on prices.Crystal-pulling manufacturers are sitting on ample feedstock inventories and have slowed their procurement cadence,maintaining steady downward pressure on polysilicon prices.With the supply-demand balance deteriorating further this month,and despite frequent industry-wide meetings among leading producers to address anti-involution concerns,market-driven low-price competition continues to intensify.Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in a downward oscillation in the near term.
Wafers
The wafer segment continues to be constrained by the twin pressures of high inventory and weak cost support.Industry-wide inventory remains above 28 GW,and shipment pressure at the producer level stays elevated.July wafer production schedules have been nudged slightly higher overall,but insufficient demand from the downstream cell segment means inventory clearance is progressing slowly.To accelerate cash recovery,tier-2 and tier-3 producers are continuing to offer discounts to move product,steadily pulling the market price center of gravity lower.The ongoing decline in polysilicon prices is undermining wafer cost support;combined with persistently high operating rates against a backdrop of elevated inventory,the supply-demand surplus is unlikely to correct quickly.Wafer prices are expected to remain range-bound at low levels in the near term.
Cells
Cell inventory has climbed to approximately 12 days of supply,with stockpile pressure continuing to build;shipments remain sluggish,and the overall pricing framework is increasingly disordered.Mainstream cell quotes have broadly fallen to CNY 0.27/W,with some low-priced lots transacting at CNY 0.26/W,though actual confirmed orders remain limited.The cell segment will continue to trend lower and search for a bottom in the near term.On the supply side,vertically integrated cell manufacturers continue to increase production,intensifying the industry's oversupply.Currently,210R inventory in particular has accumulated to significant levels.On the cost side,declining silver prices are further eroding cell cost support,triggering price-dumping behavior among traders.Compounding matters,pessimistic market sentiment is building,and downstream buyers are operating with a"buy on the way up,not on the way down"mentality,limiting procurement to firm needs only.Market activity remains subdued,and the downward price trend shows no signs of reversal.
Modules
The module segment continues to operate under sustained pressure,weighed down by supply chain cost collapse and tepid market demand.Market demand is consistently falling short of expectations;procurement activity is still dominated by low-cost sourcing,with industry transactions essentially underpinned by firm-demand restocking and deliveries against previously awarded contracts.
The rapid decline in upstream cell prices has caused the cost floor for modules to cave in.Panic sentiment is spreading across the market,with leading manufacturers proactively cutting quotes sharply—prices have broadly settled at CNY 0.67–0.70/W.Tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers are now quoting at CNY 0.65–0.67/W,with some legacy,lower-efficiency inventory being liquidated at distressed prices to free up cash flow.
The industry is firmly in a price downtrend.Downstream buyers are overwhelmingly in wait-and-see mode,slowing their procurement pace,and overall market activity is thin.With upstream costs continuing to weaken and market demand remaining soft,module prices are expected to remain under pressure going forward.
