Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories currently remain above 540,000 metric tons, continuing to rise, while production is still increasing, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance. The polysilicon market remains caught between strong expectations for policy intervention and weak underlying fundamentals, with market participants largely adopting a wait-and-see approach.
As the policy has yet to be fully implemented, downstream buyers remain cautious. Actual transactions are mainly limited to small-volume orders, specific sales channels, and spot-futures transactions. A new market pricing framework has yet to emerge, and overall trading activity remains subdued.
Meanwhile, expectations for significant polysilicon production cuts in October continue to strengthen. Coupled with strong price-supporting efforts from leading producers, major suppliers are still largely maintaining quotations around their cost levels. The market has yet to see active price concessions or low-price dumping, leaving polysilicon in a “prices quoted but limited transactions” situation. Whether a new pricing framework can be re-established will depend on policy implementation and the actual scale of production cuts. If the cuts fall short of expectations, polysilicon prices could still face downside risks.
Wafers
Wafer inventories currently stand at around 26 GW, showing a slight upward trend, while prices continue to shift lower, with more low-priced material entering the market. Although relatively stable polysilicon prices are providing some support to wafer prices, pressure from weaker overseas demand and the continued downward trend in cell prices is still being transmitted upstream through the cost chain.
Mainstream transaction prices for 183 mm, 210R, and 210 mm wafers have gradually declined to around RMB 1.00/pc, RMB 1.02/pc, and RMB 1.10/pc, respectively, with price differentiation between wafer formats becoming increasingly pronounced. Among them, prices for 183 mm wafers have come under greater downward pressure due to the contraction in overseas orders.
At present, expectations for firm polysilicon prices have strengthened somewhat, providing some support for wafer prices. Going forward, market attention will focus on changes in the polysilicon pricing framework. If the current high-price polysilicon regime begins to weaken, wafer prices may follow with further declines.
Cells
Cell inventories currently stand at around eight days of production, with overall shipment pressure increasing and inventories trending upward. The stocking demand driven by overseas policy developments earlier in the year is gradually fading. At the same time, rising customs-clearance risks and elevated inventories at overseas project sites are putting further pressure on procurement demand. However, demand for 210R cells in the Indian market has recently remained relatively solid, with buyers showing greater acceptance of current prices.
Cell prices continue to diverge by format. Prices for 183 mm and 210 mm cells are currently around RMB 0.285/W and RMB 0.29/W, respectively, while 210R cells have remained relatively firm, rebounding modestly to around RMB 0.31/W. The recent rebound in silver prices has provided some support to cell costs. However, with overall downstream demand remaining weak, cell prices continue to face pressure and are expected to remain under downward pressure in the near term.
Modules
The module market remains primarily driven by domestic demand. As cell prices continue to decline, cost support for modules is weakening accordingly. Against a backdrop of expectations for “anti-involution” policy measures and the absence of a new polysilicon pricing framework, module manufacturers continue to quote at relatively high levels. Leading manufacturers are quoting around RMB 0.70–0.72/W for TOPCon modules, while quotes from second-tier manufacturers are mostly below RMB 0.68/W. However, actual transaction volumes remain limited, leaving the market in a “prices quoted but little traded” situation.
With domestic market projects showing limited acceptance of higher prices, a significant volume of low-priced modules remains available in the market, while supplies of lower-efficiency and special-price modules are increasing. Overall, the upstream and downstream segments remain locked in a negotiation over pricing, with high-priced modules facing significant resistance in closing deals. As falling cell prices further weaken cost support for modules, module prices continue to face some downward pressure. Market attention will remain focused on the actual implementation of the “anti-involution” policy.