Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories remain above 560,000 metric tons, with substantial oversupply pressure persisting. Although domestic polysilicon output fell by approximately 20,000 metric tons month on month in October, supply still exceeds downstream wafer manufacturers’ demand, and inventory accumulation continues. Meanwhile, leading producers responded to calls for production cuts in late October and quickly began reducing operating rates. These measures have effectively curbed supply, significantly slowing the pace of inventory accumulation across the industry.
Downstream ingot manufacturers continue to replenish inventories on an as-needed basis, with no large-scale procurement yet emerging for centralized solar projects. Although major suppliers have maintained firm quotations, some producers are facing mounting cash flow and inventory pressures as year-end approaches. With downstream demand set to enter its seasonal low season, some polysilicon producers may resort to price cuts to move volumes. As a result, polysilicon prices risk appearing stable on the surface while quietly declining in actual transactions.
Wafers
Wafer inventories remain at around 27 GW, while prices continue to trade weakly but remain broadly stable. October wafer production schedules edged down month on month, while persistently high polysilicon prices have provided cost support. However, wafer supply remains relatively ample, inventories are elevated, and downstream demand offers insufficient support. Some wafer manufacturers have already begun selling at lower prices, resulting in a slight downward shift in the price center of approximately RMB 0.02/pc.
Overall, wafer prices remain caught between cost support and supply-demand pressures. If spot polysilicon prices stay elevated, wafer prices may stabilize. However, if polysilicon suppliers fail to sustain their price increases, wafer prices will remain vulnerable to weak, volatile trading and further declines, although the downside may be limited.
Cells
Solar cell inventories currently stand at approximately 6–7 days of production, with a slight downward trend, indicating easing shipment pressure. October solar cell production schedules declined significantly month on month, leading to a marginal improvement in supply-demand conditions and broadly stable market prices.
However, price trends vary across different wafer and cell formats. Prices for 183 mm cells have fallen by RMB 0.01–0.02/W amid weakness on both the supply and demand sides.
In overseas markets, demand for high-efficiency 210R cells remains relatively strong, supported by demand from the Middle East and India, including re-export demand. No signs of a slowdown have emerged so far, and prices remain firm. However, a potential slowdown in procurement in the coming period warrants close attention. In the domestic market, demand for 210 mm cells is gradually picking up as centralized utility-scale PV projects release demand in the fourth quarter. Combined with leading manufacturers’efforts to maintain prices, this is providing relatively strong near-term price support.
Looking ahead, solar cell prices continue to face downside risks. On the one hand, any softening in upstream polysilicon prices could weaken cost support for solar cells. On the other, as market demand enters its seasonal low season, solar cell supply-demand conditions may deteriorate again, putting prices under renewed pressure.
PV Modules
Domestic utility-scale PV projects are entering the final stages of installation toward year-end. Deliveries of 210 mm modules have increased, while demand for modules in other formats remains relatively weak. Market procurement is largely driven by essential demand and the fulfillment of orders awarded in earlier tenders. Overall trading activity remains subdued, and PV module prices continue to trade weakly but broadly steadily, with some room for negotiation in actual transactions.
Looking ahead, PV module prices are likely to face downward pressure as winter approaches and demand temporarily weakens toward year-end. However, expectations for policies aimed at curbing excessive competition and improving industry discipline are strengthening, while manufacturers are becoming increasingly focused on cost control. These factors are reinforcing the industry's willingness to maintain price stability. Going forward, attention should focus on the implementation of relevant policies and developments in polysilicon prices.