The grace period for the anti-dumping and countervailing policy is almost coming to an end. Although it’s not certain whether the compromise can be reached between China and Europe, the recent spot market momentum is yet to be observed. According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, the point where the spot market price raised began last December. However, the raise has slowed down and part of the product price even dropped. To look into the future development, EnergyTrend believes that the future price will have to depend on the policy direction in August. If fixed quantity pricing is going to be adopted in the end, there will be limitation for the future product price to increase. Moreover, it may completely reverse the entire situation.
EnergyTrend indicates that the average polysilicon spot price has started to go downward after reaching its peak after this March. Based on the statistics, polysilicon price has entirely increased from December to March, but the increasing range has differed by region. Impacted by the anti-dumping and countervailing issues, Chinese manufacturers rushed to get the shipment out which in turn drove strong demand towards polysilicon, maintaining a 3.5%-4.5% rise each month. In terms of other regions, the market reacted slower, maintaining a 4% rise only in February and March. The price decline accelerated since April with a 1.2%-1.3% decline in average and a 5%-6% decline in average in May.
In terms of silicon wafer, the product price remained upward until April but it’s moving toward a different development direction in May. For monosilicon wafer, there was a 0.2%-1.5% drop in average in May mainly because monosilicon demand and high-efficiency polysilicon demand’s negatively correlated. Judging from EnergyTrend’s observation, the demand for high-efficiency products in May has shifted from monosilicon to polysilicon hence caused monosilicon wafer demand to move slower and price to go down. For polysilicon wafer, the market price remained upward from December to May. Yet, it started to go downward since April. According to EnergyTrend, there’s a slight gap between the market price for high-efficiency products and normal grade products. While the price of high-efficiency products remained upward, the price of normal grade products showed a downward trend. Thus, the price of normal grade products is likely to affect future product price.
Regarding the downstream cell and module, product price remained upward until the end of May. For cell, a 2% and above rise has been maintained since February. Although it slightly decreased in April, it rose again in May. Except the market momentum’s good for Taiwanese manufacturers to keep the negotiation advantages, with the demand entering into peak season, it will also boost the price. In terms of modules, although the price’s going upward, a 1%-3% rise could be rather slow compared with other products. According to EnergyTrend, because system operators tend to focus on maintaining investment ROI, they particularly resisted to revise the price downward. As module manufacturers looking after both shipment and cost, price can only be revised slightly upward.
Judging from the spot market overall performance, manufacturers’ trading condition for the current spot market has declined due to the contract execution. In addition, China’s polysilicon price has continued to decrease. This week’s polysilicon spot market price has slightly declined. For polysilicon wafer, the price of normal grade products declined while that of high-efficiency products remained the same. Moreover, because the recent demand for some manufacturers focus on normal grade products. For monosilicon wafer, China’s quoted price continued to decline. By observing the European Committee’s policy direction in August and the future development on China’s domestic policy, the manufacturers’ attitudes have turned conservative. While the heat for market trade started to cool off, this week’s cell and module price remained steady.