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China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) has officially announced its yearly target of solar PV installation for 2015. According to a draft opinion soliciting nationwide solar PV installations in 2015 (the “Draft Opinion”), NEA plans to add 8GW of centralized PV power plants and 7GW of distributed PV generations (DG), cumulatively 15GW.
China’s latest Renewable Energy Quotas suggests installing 200GW of wind power and 100GW of solar power by 2020, meaning that the nation has to add respectively 20GW and 16GW of new installations per year. However, China failed to achieve its 13GW target – which had already been revised down – for 2014. According to data unveiled on NEA’s website, it installed only about 27% of the full-year target during the first three quarters, and the cumulative grid-connected capacity in 2014 might be only 5~8GW, around a half of the target.
Nonetheless, the Chinese government is still endeavoring to achieve its PV targets. In the latest Draft Opinion, NEA again extends its definition and limitations on DG installations. For regions include Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing and Tibet, there is no DG scale limitation as long as there is no any DG capacity abandoned. Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are assigned for DG installation targets which should not be less than 500MW. Following the previous Announcement for DG project unveiled in last September, it remains the two major modes for rooftop DG systems, including: (1) projects for grid-connection, and (2) projects for self-consumption and surplus power for grid-connection.
Likewise, solar PV systems installed on abandoned lands, unused slopes, canopy for agricultural uses and fish ponds will be recognized as DG systems. According to China’s research, PV systems built on abandoned lands share some features with ground-mounted PV systems which have lower risks. Moreover, most local governments plan to offer specialized subsidies for such DG projects. As a result, some DG projects are more profitable than large-scale ground-mounted PV power plants in the great western area in China and become even attractive for investors. The 7GW target seems reasonable for China this year. It is also expected that the installation would increase more than 200% compared to 2014’s 2-3GW.
Regionally, the plan allocations are more convincible in 2015 than in 2014. For instance, the target for PV installation in Xingjian has been increased from 650MW up to 1000MW due to its intensive solar irradiation. In addition, NEA decided to establish a supervision mechanism and float indexes for installation capacity. Every quarter, NEA would compile statistical data of each province’s developing progresses and increase or decrease its index.
In terms of financing programs, there are more and more Chinese banks start their financing business for solar projects and PV manufacturers. It is estimated that China’s cumulative grid-connected PV projects can reach 38GW by 2015, over the government’s 12th five-year plan of installing 35GW. Within the process, it realized around RMB 108 billion investment in solar-related targets.
“In 2015, we can see more detailed and well-established policies for both centralized and distributed PV projects,” said Shi Jing-li (時璟麗), a researcher at China’s Energy Research Institute National Development And Reform Commission. “As the financial supports for distributed generations will also be strengthened, it would be more effective for China to embark on its policy for power generating, grid-connecting and subsidizing of DG projects.”
(Photo: Wu Xingsiung, director of China's National Development And Reform Commission, met with the newly-appointed EU ambassador for China in Beijing.)