Polysilicon
Supply side:
The polysilicon sector is currently facing significant inventory pressure. Total inventories remain above 510,000 tons and continue to show a slight accumulation trend, indicating an overall oversupplied market.
Demand side:
Downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and market transactions are extremely subdued. The polysilicon market has effectively entered a “quoted prices but no transactions” stalemate, with actual deals largely stalled. Market demand for polysilicon is clearly insufficient to absorb the substantial existing inventories.
Price trend:
Against the backdrop of supply-demand imbalance, polysilicon producers are struggling to hold prices firm. Reports have emerged that leading manufacturers have lowered their quotations, while traders in the spot and futures markets have offered prices as low as RMB 46/kg. Although the Tongwei acquisition event has provided short-term sentiment support for price stabilization, polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a “weak but stable” trend in the near term.
Wafers
Supply side:
Wafer inventories remain elevated, with total stock levels still exceeding 25 GW. Combined with production scheduling and logistics disruptions during the Chinese New Year holiday, wafer inventories are expected to rise further. Overall wafer supply remains ample, and thus manufacturers continue to face heavy destocking pressure.
Demand side:
Although wafer producers have generally adopted price-cutting strategies to stimulate shipments, the ramp-up pace of downstream cell production remains relatively slow. Demand for wafers has fallen short of expectations, resulting in weak procurement momentum and limited ability to digest upstream inventory accumulation.
Price trend:
Market price divergence persists, with second- and third-tier manufacturers showing a noticeable downward shift in pricing. Given their inventory reduction pressure and expectations of continued “weak stability” in upstream polysilicon prices, cost support is limited. Wafer prices are therefore expected to remain weak but stable in the short term.
Cells
Supply side:
Cell inventories are currently around nine days. Due to production cuts during the Chinese New Year holiday and sluggish market transactions, cell inventory levels have edged up slightly.
Demand side:
During the holiday period, downstream buyers maintained a strong wait-and-see attitude, with limited willingness to take deliveries or build inventory. Actual transaction volumes have been minimal, and short-term demand remains sluggish.
Price trend:
Although silver futures prices have retreated from recent highs, tight silver paste supply and bullish sentiment have kept cell manufacturers’ silver procurement costs elevated (above RMB 20,000/kg). High costs combined with production cuts are supporting current price levels. In the short term, cell prices are expected to remain weak but stable. Future trends will depend on the pace of cell production recovery, silver price fluctuations, and overseas export demand surges.
Modules
Supply side:
Module manufacturers are primarily executing previously secured orders. However, in the absence of substantial new orders, solar module producers are unable to arrange large-scale additional deliveries. Overall production scheduling remains conservative, relying mainly on fulfilling backlog orders to maintain baseline operating rates.
Demand side:
Market sentiment is strongly cautious, with downstream procurement willingness significantly subdued. Apart from occasional urgent overseas orders triggering short-term shipment spikes, very few new contracts have been finalized. Domestic demand lacks follow-through momentum, and incremental demand for modules remains severely insufficient in the short term.
Price trend:
Current spot transaction prices for solar modules are mostly concentrated in the RMB 0.75–0.82/W range. With the adjustment deadline for export tax rebate policies approaching, if domestic new orders fail to pick up in time, module prices could face significant downside pressure. Close attention should be paid to marginal order changes in mid-to-early March to gauge future price direction.