A Danish research team has rolled out a PV power generation forecast model, claiming that it can forecast the PV power output at any site of the world, thereby helping prospective investors to select the sites for their PV power systems.
The model is developed by a research team at Aarhus University, which first collected the irradiation data of various countries via their CFSRs (climate forecast system reanalysis) before subjecting them to calibration via the data of the earth surface’s radiation and various applications. With the help of these data, the model can be used to predict and analyze information about the long term and hourly outputs of various PV installations.
Meanwhile, based on the estimated power outputs of the summer and winter solstice periods, the model can also be used to deduce the optimal angles and directions for the installations of the solar panels of various PV power systems. This includes the installation of panels for the rooftop residential PV power systems and sun-tracking PV power stations.
According to the team’s findings, the current PV power forecast model is applicable even to sites without a past record on PV power generation. Marta Victoria, an assistant professor on the team, claims that the team has already managed to collect up to 38 years of data on the solar radiation, climate, and temperatures of such regions. The spatial resolution of the model is currently at 40 x 40 kilometers. In the future, the data of these regions can be used with the data of the regions that already have an actual record of PV power output such as Europe to make reliable forecasts and predictions.
Total PV power output of European nations, 2013-2017 (photo courtesy of Aarhus University)
As of now, the team's PV forecast model is already capable of making very precise forecasts on a global, regional, and local level, which can help give prospective investors a firm grip on the potential benefits of various PV power systems, according to Victoria.
The model is preceded by the release of the Global Solar Atlas model which was previously rolled out by the International Solar Alliance (ISA) and World Bank. The forecast system of Global Solar Atlas has a spatial resolution of up to one kilometer, and is based on the global yearly and daily vertical solar radiation data that is collected during the period of 1994-2015. The system offers information on average solar irradiance, whole-sky radiation, and the PV power output of individual sites. It can also estimate a PV power system’s overall power output based on the scale, location, and angle of the systems
In 2018, Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau also joined hands with the Bureau of Energy, under the nation’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, to roll out the "virtual operation center for weather information for green energy."