According to the latest research by TrendForce's New Energy Research Center in its Global PV Industry Chain Price Trend Monthly Report, both polysilicon and wafer prices have declined, and price stabilization remains elusive.
Polysilicon
This Week's Prices:
This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34.5/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32.0/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 31.5/KG.
Transaction Dynamics:
There has been a slowdown in polysilicon procurement. Given the low visibility of downstream orders for July and mounting losses at the wafer segment, crystal pulling (ingot) manufacturers remain hesitant to restock for the coming month. Therefore, end-of-month polysilicon transactions have contracted, primarily consisting of low-priced, mixed-grade polysilicon procured on a just-in-time basis.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, total polysilicon inventory exceeds 370,000 tons. Leading polysilicon manufacturers continue to ramp up output in hydropower-abundant regions, with other producers following suit. As a result, actual polysilicon output in June has seen a slight uptick, and thus inventory pressure continues to trend upward.
Supply–Demand Dynamics:
During the wet season, whether leading manufacturers proceed with capacity replacements and scale back production in Inner Mongolia will be key. If not, even temporary maintenance by second-tier producers won't be enough to curb overall polysilicon output or ease inventory pressure. On the downstream side, wafer manufacturers are expected to reduce output in July in a bid to balance supply and demand to stabilize prices. Nonetheless, polysilicon inventory levels are still expected to face upward pressure.
Price Trend:
N-type polysilicon prices dropped across all product categories this week. The average price for N-type dense polysilicon declined slightly to RMB 32.0/kg on a weekly basis. To accelerate inventory clearance, some producers have been offloading stock at low prices, making it difficult for average transaction prices to hold. Looking ahead, pricing is likely to face significant pressure during the current demand vacuum.
Wafers
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 0.88/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.23/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.01/Pc.
Supply–Demand Dynamics:
Downstream demand for wafer sizing has largely transitioned to the 210RN format. As 210RN capacity ramped up, oversupply became evident, leading to declining prices for this wafer format. Meanwhile, 183N wafers have seen a rapid contraction in demand, resulting in heightened inventory pressure. Consequently, some wafer manufacturers have been forced to consume their inentory, with quotes as much as RMB 0.02–0.03/piece below the mainstream price. On the demand side, cell manufacturers also face weak demand, prompting increasingly cautious wafer procurement. Wafer supply is expected to remain ample in July, and in the context of sluggish market demand, wafer price stabilization will be increasingly difficult.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, wafer inventory remains above 2 billion pieces. With market demand in a lull, even planned production cuts by leading specialized manufacturers next month may not be sufficient to curb inventory buildup.
Price Trend:
Wafer prices declined across the board this week. Looking ahead, some producers may resort to panic selling and aggressive price cuts to avoid further inventory build-up.
Cells
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.230W. The price of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.250W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.265/W.
Supply–Demand Dynamics:
Demand divergence across different cell formats persists. Due to a sharp decline in downstream demand for 183N, even though some cell manufacturers have begun reducing production of this format, it has not kept pace with the rate of demand contraction. As a result, 183N is showing clear signs of inventory buildup, forcing producers to offload at low prices.
For 210RN, capacity retrofits are still in the ramp-up phase for some producers and have not yet reached mass production, offering temporary price support. However, some cell manufacturers have already started preemptively selling 210RN at slightly discounted prices.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, specialized cell producers hold about 10 days’'worth of inventory. However, due to supply outpacing demand throughout the month, inventory levels may rise again, with 183N accounting for a growing share of total cell stock.
Price Trend:
This week saw slight price declines for N-type M10L and G12 cells, while G12RN held steady. Upstream cost instability—driven by continued polysilicon and wafer price volatility—combined with an anticipated decline in module demand next month, means cell prices will likely face continued downward pressure.
Modules
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-glass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.
Supply–Demand Dynamics:
Module orders are expected to continue declining. Specifically, orders from top-tier manufacturers have dropped significantly, and tier-2 and tier-3 players are facing severe challenges securing new orders. Utilization rates across the board remain low. Domestic demand is mainly supported by utility-scale solar PV projects, but these projects have yet to enter the procurement phase. Additionally, end customers remain skeptical amid ongoing module price declines, leading to a wait-and-see attitude. This cautious sentiment is, in turn, pushing module makers to further cut prices in order to clear inventory.
Price Trend:
Module prices continued to decline, with top-tier manufacturers adjusting shipment prices downward. Transaction prices have fallen into the RMB 0.63–0.66/W range. Tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers are cutting prices by RMB 0.03–0.04/W in an attempt to attract more orders, though results remain sluggish.
Overseas Demand:
Europe: Module prices held steady in May, but remain under pressure due to falling prices of imported products.
India: DCR module prices increased slightly, driven by government projects and higher local manufacturing costs, partly due to anti-dumping duties on BOM. Meanwhile, imported module prices declined slightly due to oversupply.
United States: FOB prices increased marginally. Following adjustments to the Senate budget proposal, if capacity construction does not begin within 60 days of the bill's passage, the corresponding projects may lose eligibility for tax credits. If this clause passes, it could trigger a new wave of project rushes.
