Polysilicon
Supply side:
Inventory pressure remains severe, with total stockpiles exceeding 460,000 tons and still rising. However, against the backdrop of industry self-discipline initiatives and the establishment of the polysilicon purchase-and-storage (reserve) platform, producers in the upstream segments have formed a broad consensus to support prices, showing strong willingness to actively push polysilicon prices higher.
Demand side:
Demand from the downstream ingot (crystal-pulling) segment has contracted sharply due to significant production cuts. In response to upstream price hikes, buyers have shown clear resistance, leaving the market in a stalemate. At present, high-priced new orders have yet to be concluded in meaningful volumes.
Price trend:
Although new order prices have aggressively tested levels above RMB 65/kg, whether such prices can be realized will depend on how the wafer price increases and the effectiveness of cost pass-through. Based on the current negotiation dynamics and polysilicon sellers’ firm price-pushing strategy, polysilicon prices are expected to edge upward gradually.
Wafers
Supply side:
Wafer manufacturers have proactively implemented deep production cuts. Coupled with widespread withholding of sales amid bullish price expectations, wafer inventories have been rapidly drawn down and are expected to fall below 15 GW, signaling a pronounced contraction on the supply side.
Demand side:
Spurred by price-hike expectations following the Xi’an industry self-discipline meeting, downstream demand has surged altogether. Leading cell manufacturers have moved early to lock in large volumes and build inventory, effectively shifting part of the stock from the wafer segment to the cell segment and providing strong buying support.
Price trend:
Transaction prices have already rebounded to RMB 1.25/piece, RMB 1.35/piece, and RMB 1.55/piece. While the exact magnitude of further increases will still depend on polysilicon cost movements and price transmission to the cell segment, the substantial inventory drawdown has significantly strengthened sellers’ bargaining power, giving the wafer segment ample momentum for additional price hikes.
Cells
Supply side:
Cell inventories remain stable at around 6–8 days. Influenced by industry’s self-discipline measures and bullish raw-material price expectations, cell manufacturers have become more reluctant to sell. To counter downstream resistance, further production cuts are expected to be made to support the pricing framework.
Demand side:
The market is currently in the seasonal off-peak period, and the module segment has failed to follow upstream price increases. Therefore, acceptance of price hikes in intermediate segments remains limited, intensifying negotiations across the value chain and placing demand under significant pressure.
Price trend:
Driven by rising silver paste and wafer costs, current transaction prices have reached the cash cost level of RMB 0.32/W. Given persistent cost pressure and manufacturers’ strong determination to push prices higher, short-term cell price peaks are expected to test RMB 0.34/W.
PV Modules
Supply side:
The exit of outdated capacity is accelerating, further increasing market concentration. Under the combined push of industry self-discipline efforts and upstream raw-material price increases, comprehensive module costs have risen passively. Leading manufacturers such as LONGi, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar have taken the lead in raising quotations by RMB 0.02–0.04/W, demonstrating a strong willingness to support prices.
Demand side:
Constrained by the traditional Q1 off-season and unfavorable construction conditions, both domestic and overseas demand continue to contract. The market is currently focused on executing previously signed orders, while customers show extremely low acceptance of a new round of price increases. New order transactions remain stalled, leaving the market short of effective demand support in the near term.
Price trend:
In the short term, seasonal weak demand makes it difficult for module price increases to be realized, resulting in a market situation where prices are quoted but transactions are scarce. Looking ahead, supported by costs and better supply, a clear price floor has already formed. After the Lunar New Year, as demand recovers, module prices are expected to see a substantive rebound followed by a gradual upward trend.
