Polysilicon
Supply:
Production cuts by leading producers have now been implemented. Tongwei has largely suspended polysilicon output, while GCL has reduced its production. Consequently, February polysilicon output is expected to fall to around 85,000 metric tons, marking a notable contraction in supply. However, industry-wide polysilicon inventories have already exceeded 510,000 tons and continue to rise, leaving inventory pressure extremely elevated.
Demand:
Downstream wafer prices continue to weaken, leading buyers to adopt a wait-and-see stance, with very limited spot transactions taking place. Overall, the market remains locked in a stalemate characterized by weak supply and weak demand, with total volumes broadly flat.
Price Trend:
Supported by production cuts and expectations surrounding upcoming industry meetings, leading polysilicon producers have strengthened their resolve to defend prices, with some tentatively testing prices above RMB 60/kg. However, under pressure from low-priced polysilicon in the spot and futures-linked market (RMB 48–50/kg) and subdued downstream demand, polysilicon prices are unlikely to gain upward momentum in February and are expected to remain weak but stable.
Wafers
Supply:
Industry wafer inventories have surpassed 24 GW and continue to build, sharply increasing pressure on wafer manufacturers. Wafer inventory is relatively concentrated now, with the bulk held by leading tier-1 producers.
Demand:
The pace of market absorption of wafers remains slow, making it difficult to effectively draw down large inventories. Structural supply–demand imbalance remains pronounced.
Price Trend:
Spot transaction benchmarks continue to edge lower month-on-month, with wafer prices now even approaching cost floors. Despite the heavy inventory burden, rigid cost support is expected to limit further near-term downside. Future wafer price movements will be highly dependent on upstream polysilicon pricing; if raw material prices fail to hold, wafer prices may be dragged into a renewed downward probe.
Cells
Supply:
Cell inventories remain at around one week, showing a slight accumulation trend. To mitigate losses from silver price volatility, cell manufacturers have continued to implement deep production cuts and increasingly adopt build-to-order or OEM manufacturing models. February cell output is expected to decline by a further 10%, bringing total production to around 35GW to 36 GW, broadly in balance with downstream demand. Recent sharp fluctuations in silver prices have led both cell producers and silver paste suppliers to temporarily suspend quotations, with transactions largely limited to previously signed contracts or higher-priced orders. This has contributed to a modest inventory build at the cell level. Going forward, cell pricing will remain closely tied to movements in silver prices.
Demand:
As supply continues to contract, the market is expected to move toward a broadly balanced supply–demand position in February. The recent marginal inventory increase is mainly attributable to short-term disruptions in pricing and shipment rhythms caused by silver price volatility.
Price Trend:
Sharp swings in silver prices have become the dominant pricing variable, prompting temporary quotation suspensions across the cell and silver paste segments. Near-term transactions are largely executing against prior or high-priced orders. Future cell price direction will remain highly dependent on raw material cost dynamics, with silver prices as the key factor to monitor.
PV Modules
Supply:
Tier-1 manufacturers’ overseas order books are effectively fully scheduled. However, with the Chinese Lunar New Year approaching and employee leave arrangements limiting in-house production capacity, leading manufacturers have significantly increased outsourced contract manufacturing to ensure timely delivery. As a result, production priorities in this segment have shifted decisively toward fulfilling export orders.
Demand:
The market continues to display a clear “weak domestic demand but strong overseas” pattern. Domestic demand remains subdued, while transaction activity is increasingly concentrated in overseas markets. Driven by adjustments to export tax rebate policies, overseas customers have shown strong procurement appetite, becoming the primary force behind ongoing inventory digestion.
Price Trend:
Spot prices show clear differences. Leading module manufacturers are maintaining quotations at RMB 0.80–0.85/W, while tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers are pricing around RMB 0.78/W. With prices on near-term executed orders already locked in, market performance remains relatively stable. Looking ahead, attention should focus on the sustainability of overseas shipment momentum and the potential cost impact from upstream silver price volatility.
