PV Supply Chain: Polysilicon, Wafers, and Cells Enter Bottoming and Stabilization Phase

Polysilicon

Supply side: Polysilicon inventories remain elevated at above 520,000 mt, with no clear inflection point for destocking yet observed. The overall inventory build-up trend continues.

Demand side: Facing persistent upstream supply pressure, downstream buyers continue to adopt highly conservative procurement strategies, mainly limited to just-in-time replenishment. Overall spot polysilicon market activity remains subdued.

Price trend: Supported by expectations of policy tailwinds and a gradually forming cost floor, futures prices have reacted first and rebounded sharply. However, constrained by the ongoing supply–demand imbalance, spot prices of polysilicon have not followed the rally and remain stuck at previous levels.

In the short term, without a fundamental improvement, polysilicon spot prices lack upward momentum and are likely to remain in weak consolidation near the bottom. Key turning points will depend on policy implementation and the pace of capacity rationalization.

Wafers 

Supply side: Wafer inventories remain high at above 25 GW, and the oversupply situation is unlikely to reverse materially in the short term. Inventory pressure on the supply side remains significant.

Demand side: Downstream utilization rates of cell manufacturers remain weak, reflecting insufficient market demand. Buyers are likely to continue price-focused procurement strategies. However, with domestic utility-scale solar demand expected to ramp up, some solar projects may enter a phase of large-scale deliveries.

Price trend: Supported by polysilicon price stabilization and persistent losses, wafer manufacturers collectively attempted to hold firm this week, with quotes rising slightly by RMB 0.02/piece, although no actual transactions have materialized. In the short term, the wafer market remains under pressure and is likely to continue bottoming out without a meaningful rebound.

Going forward, close attention should be paid to demand for specific wafer formats during the upcoming delivery phase, as price differentiation across sizes is likely to emerge.

PV Cells

Supply side: Circulating inventory in the cell segment remains at around 8–10 days, with ongoing destocking pressure. However, as specialized cell manufacturers have recently implemented significant production cuts, output has been reduced, and the supply side is entering a clear contraction phase.

Demand side: Slower module shipment schedules have led buyers to maintain cautious, demand-driven procurement, with no large-scale stocking activity observed. As a result, inventory digestion remains relatively slow.

Price trend: Cell prices previously fell to around RMB 0.33/W and have recently shown signs of stabilization. Key support factors include strong expectations for wafer price stabilization, persistently high silver costs providing rigid cost support, and policy expectations boosting manufacturers’ willingness to hold prices.

In the short term, cell prices are likely to remain in weak consolidation, with silver price volatility remaining a key variable to monitor.

PV Modules

Supply side: Amid a sharp contraction in orders, module production schedules have been significantly reduced, and the supply side has entered a phase of passive contraction. The industry-wide cost line is currently around RMB 0.75/W, with some smaller manufacturers facing severe shipment pressure due to a lack of orders.

Demand side: In April, market demand is in a transitional gap phase. Overseas demand has weakened, while domestic demand has not picked up as expected, leading to a sharp decline in new module orders. In the short term, the whole market lacks meaningful and large-scale purchasing support

Price trend: Although leading manufacturers are attempting to maintain firm headline prices, actual transaction levels have already declined. To compete for limited orders, some smaller manufacturers are accepting prices as low as RMB 0.72/W.

While upstream segments are showing signs of stabilization, module prices are still likely to test the downside in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to cell price trends and the pace of domestic project ramp-up.