Polysilicon Prices Forced to Decline; Solar PV Prices Unlikely to Stabilize Before SNEC

Polysilicon

This Week's Prices:

This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 36.5/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 34.0/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 33.0/KG.

Transaction Status:

Orders have gradually been signed post-holiday, and transaction volumes have expanded slightly within the week. Currently, mainstream transaction prices are in the RMB 33-34/kg range. Some Tier-3 manufacturers, aiming to stabilize cash flow, have sold at RMB 1-2/kg below mainstream prices. However, ingot anufacturers remain firm on forcing the price down, preferring to purchase lower-priced blended polysilicon feedstock to mitigate losses.

Inventory Dynamics:

As of this week, total polysilicon inventory stands at approximately 370,000 tons. With downstream procurement slowing, overall polysilicon inventory levels are expected to continue increasing in the short term.

Supply-Demand Dynamics:

During the rainy season, some producers have confirmed production increases, leading to a slight month-on-month rise in overall polysilicon supply. On the demand side, ingot manufacturers have become more cautious in their purchasing strategies amid significant ongoing losses, pressing polysilicon producers to agree with lower prices. They continue to adopt a 'procure-as-needed' approach to avoid stockpiling excess polysilicon.

Price Trend:

This week, all categories of N-type polysilicon saw price corrections. The average price of dense N-type polysilicon settled at RMB 34.0/kg, with a slight week-on-week decline. During the rainy season, polysilicon producers actively ramped up output, but given insufficient demand, inventory pressure is expected to keep driving prices down in this sector.

Wafers

This Week's Prices:

The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 0.93/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.27/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.07/Pc.

Supply-Demand Dynamics:

Demand varies across different wafer sizes. Demand for 183N remains unclear, with evident issues of pile-up inventory. For 210RN, downstream manufacturers are gradually ramping up new production lines, jointly supporting demand. As a result, prices for 210RN are expected to remain stable in early June. However, as some 183N lines are converted to 210RN later in the month, there is a risk of oversupply and potential price declines.

Inventory Dynamics:

As of this week, wafer inventory remains stable at around 2 billion pieces, with no significant short-term growth in stock levels.

Price Trend:

Wafer prices remained steady within the week. However, procurement orders from cell manufacturers appear to be weakening, potentially undermining the price stability of wafers in the near term.

Cells

This Week's Prices:

The mainstream concluded price for M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.250W. The price of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.270W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.260/W.

Supply-Demand Dynamics:

Looking at production plans of June, some cell manufacturers are continuing to convert 183mm production lines to 210R. Oversupply pressure becomes greater for 183 cells producers, while 210RN cell producers benefit from higher module efficiencies. Consequently, 210RN cells enjoy relatively strong market demand and price support. For now, although cell manufacturers face substantial pressure, overall production plans have not yet seen large-scale reductions. In the short term, supply-demand imbalances may continue to put downward pressure on cell prices.

Inventory Dynamics:

As of this week, specialized cell manufacturers have roughly one week's worth of inventory—still at a low to normal level. However, within the month, given oversupply, cell inventory levels may climb again.

Price Trend:

Within the week, prices for N-type M10L and G12 cells edged down slightly. Demand for 183mm cells remains sluggish, and inventory pressure is high.

Modules

This Week's Prices:

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.75/W.

Supply-Demand Dynamics:

Module demand is currently in a lull. In June, leading module manufacturers significantly reduced production, and outsourced orders. Mid- to lower-tier manufacturers have successively begun to scale back or halt production. Therefore, the module segment is now experiencing both falling prices and declining volumes, while awaiting the ramp-up of utility-scale solar project stockpiling.

Price Trend: Module prices have become more differentiated. High-efficiency large-format modules are commanding a 0.02 RMB/W premium over other products. However, spot prices for traditional 590W modules have now fallen below RMB 0.65/W. Given the market lull leading up to the SNEC exhibition, module prices are likely to remain low in the short term.

Overseas Demand:

Europe: Module prices remained stable in May, but future prices could still be affected by falling prices of imported products.

India: The final anti-dumping ruling on certain countries' imported PV glass may continue to raise local module costs, thereby pushing up prices.

USA: FOB prices have remained stable, but manufacturers are concerned that, following the final ruling on the AD/CVD case, a new round of investigations might target other Southeast Asian countries, which could gradually affect the market.