Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Upstream Polysilicon Continues in a Declining Trend as G1 Cell Quotations Differentiate under Simultaneously Diminishing Supply and Demand
The quotations in the polysilicon market continue to fluctuate this week, with a manifestation of declining pressure in the overall polysilicon prices. Domestic and overseas mono polysilicon orders are currently sustaining a reduction in prices, where the mainstream domestic quotation for mono polysilicon sits at RMB 91-95/kg, with the average price lowered to RMB 92/kg, whereas the decelerated downstream demand has resulted in the continuously decreasing trend for multi polysilicon, with the mainstream market quotation arriving at RMB 60-65/kg, and the average price reduced to RMB 63/kg. Overseas quotations have deteriorated simultaneously under the impact of the overall polysilicon price trend, which induced the global price of polysilicon to descend to US$11.476/kg.
The supply volume of the polysilicon market continues to elevate having entered late October, and 3 out of 11 domestic polysilicon businesses currently remain at the overhaul phase. The resumption of production capacity in Xinjiang and Sichuan at the end of this month is expected to alleviate the overall tight supply of polysilicon. However, the inventory level for a number of businesses in the polysilicon market has marginally increased after having gone through the previous price bargaining, which will result in a more evident price suppression from the downstream sector during procurement. Most polysilicon businesses are offering larger profits for long-term orders from regular clients through apparently loosened prices. Second and third-tier businesses have received less new requests for quotation recently, where downstream wafer businesses are primarily adhering to a wait-and-see attitude. On the whole, upstream and downstream sectors are in the midst of a noticeable bargaining stage, and the gradual elevation in polysilicon supply is forecasted to continue to lower the overall polysilicon prices.
The quotations for wafer have experienced a small fluctuation this week, where the prices of mono and multi-Si wafers continue to differentiate. The demand for multi-Si wafers that has turned sluggish recently has prompted the quotations for upstream multi polysilicon to continue to loosen. The quotation interval for the multi-Si wafer market this week has been lowered to RMB 1.52-1.63/pc, and the domestic and overseas average prices are now at RMB 1.53/pc and US$0.207/pc respectively.
Mono-Si wafers have been enjoying remarkable market demand, where the relevant quotations from first-tier businesses remains sturdy, with the average price of M6 maintained at RMB 3.2/pc. As the production line of G1 shifts to the production of wafers larger than 158.75mm, the overall supply volume is on a progressive diminishment, and the market demand is also exhibiting stagnancy, which has induced a simultaneous contraction in the supply and demand of the overall G1 market, and impelled the existing quotation to preside stationarily at RMB 3-3.1/pc, with the average price maintained at RMB 3.05/pc.
The overall quotations of cells continue to fluctuate this week, where the price of M6 cell remains robust. As the downstream demand gradually transitions to large-scale and high-efficiency products, weak-and-semi-strong efficiency cells are experiencing increasing pressure in shipment and cost, though the limited degree of price declination has stabilized the average price at RMB 0.55/W this week, and that the Indian market is also seemingly shifting to mono-Si wafers amidst the decelerated demand, thus the production capacity of multi-Si cells is expected to linger on the descending slope. On the contrary, the orders of ≥166mm high-efficiency mono-Si cells persist in escalation, however, the restricted market supply has provided support for the market price of M6, where the average domestic and overseas quotations have arrived at RMB 0.92/W and US$0.12/W respectively.
The overall market supply and demand of G1 mono-Si cells has gradually turned lethargic since 3Q20, and the shrinkage of provision is greater than that of demand within the short term, together with the aggressive price suppression from the downstream sector, have created a relatively chaotic situation in quotation. Although the overall average price of the G1 cell currently sits at approximately RMB 0.84/W, the incessant expansion in the quotation differences between first and second-tier businesses has resulted in a quotation as low as RMB 0.8/W from partial second and third-tier businesses that are focused on transactions in small batches. For businesses that produce G1 cells in the supply chain, the product will continue to sustain a market status of weakened demand and supply under the large-scale trend in the future after the gradual elimination of the previous excess demand bottleneck, and the large probability of the supply end is bound to continue to diminish, where the prices from first-tier businesses that possess stronger abilities in order obtainment will become a decisive element in the G1 market.
The quotations for modules remain stable this week, where the demand for high-efficiency products has slightly increased the prices of high-efficiency modules. A number of module makers are intending to adjust module quotations under the rising cost of auxiliary materials such as glass and film recently, though the end market has been reluctant in accepting such adjustment, and the bargaining between upstream and downstream sectors has become evident, where merely a small batch of urgent orders have been finalized with a closing price that is slightly higher than the market standard. On the other hand, the compelling demand for modules during 4Q20, as well as the amplification in the ratio of bifacial modules, have resulted in the severe shortage of glass. The demand for single-sided and bifacial backplane modules has been growing under the critical short supply of glass, and the shipment scale of the products has ascended evidently.
Domestic ground projects have accelerated on the construction period with the arrival of 4Q20, where tenders and household projects for 2020 have entered the final installation period, and the end domestic and overseas demand derived from the arrival of the traditional peak season in photovoltaic, prior to the winter holiday in overseas, continues to invigorate module shipment. The orders of first-tier businesses are relatively stable right now, and partial second and third-tier module makers are successively lowering the operating rate to respond to the cost pressure, which facilitates the stabilization of the overall market quotations, where the 275-280/330-335W multi-Si module sits at RMB 1.35/W, and the average price of the 325-335/395-405W mono-Si PERC module resides firmly at RMB 1.54/W. The recent quotation for the M6 module from mainstream businesses has arrived at above RMB 1.6/W, and the pries of high-efficiency modules above 440W in tender projects from the domestic market are usually bid with RMB 1.6-1.62/W, which propels the average price of the 355-365/425-435W mono-Si PERC module to rise moderately to RMB 1.62/W.
The price information provided by EnergyTrend is primarily a result of periodical survey of a pool of major manufacturers via telephone, questionnaires, and site visits. EnergyTrend cross-surveys major buyers and suppliers throughout the supply chain and strives to ensure all enclosed price information reflects actuality.
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Starting January 2009- Weekly Spot Price (Monthly Price Quotation For Reference)