Price Increases Narrow Across the Solar Supply Chain, Pressure of Higher Price Increase Rate Concentrates on Module Segment (July 31)

Polysilicon

Prices this week:

This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 43.0/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 41.0/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 41.0/KG.

Market activity:

Supported by upstream wafer price hikes, polysilicon prices continued to climb this week, though the rate of increase has narrowed compared to the previous period. Transactions were seen among leading wafer manufacturers replenishing inventory to sustain production. Other buyers remained cautious to avoid overstocking amid weak downstream demand.

Inventory update:

As of this week, total polysilicon inventory stands at over 380,000 tons in this segment, with the potential for further buildup in August.

Supply-demand outlook:

In August, polysilicon supply is expected to range between 120,000–125,000 tons. As prices recover, previously completed but suspended production capacity is expected to come online. This part of polysilicon capacity is mainly owned by new entrants and lower-tier players. Earlier production at ultra-low prices resulted in immediate losses, but with current price recovery, the incentive to restart production has strengthened among polysilicon producers. However, considering actual demand in the second half of 2025, the market may face a scenario that prices hold but deals dry up. At present, price guidance and capacity consolidation are acting as a price floor for polysilicon. Yet the resumed production following improved profitability is starting to dilute positive effects of production reduction policy. Market dynamics in the second half of 2025 will likely involve more intense supply-side competition, with growing uncertainty ahead.

Price trend:

Prices for all N-type polysilicon products rose again this week, though at a slower pace. Ingot (crystal pulling) manufacturers are still securing mixed feedstock silicon at lower prices. In the near term, polysilicon prices are expected to remain supported by policy expectations and hover at elevated levels.

Wafers

Prices this week:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.55/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.35/Pc.

Supply-demand dynamics:

Wafer producers maintained strict production control in July, helping stabilize supply-demand dynamics and providing upward momentum for wafer prices. In August, supported by improving prices and profit recovery, most manufacturers plan to ramp up the wafer production. Still, considering robust short-term demand for cells, overall supply-demand balance is likely to hold.

Inventory update:

Wafer inventory continued to decline, now below 16 GW, significantly easing inventory pressure and enhancing manufacturers’ bargaining power.

Price trend:

Wafer prices rose across all specifications this week. There is still solid justification for the price increase. Specifically, despite upstream polysilicon oversupply, wafer production remains tightly controlled. Coupled with a surge in overseas demand for solar cells, wafer makers have regained substantial pricing power. Therefore, wafer prices may approach full cost levels amid intense market negotiations, but maintaining a tight inventory level remains crucial.

Cells

Prices this week:

The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W. The price of G12 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W and that of G12R N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W.

Supply-demand dynamics:

Cell demand picked up in Turkey and Pakistan following tariff adjustments, fueling strong overseas purchasing activity. Meanwhile, rising wafer prices and expectations around the removal of export tax rebates in China led to successive domestic price hikes. Some module makers have begun replenishing inventory, showing greater tolerance for cell price increases.

Inventory update:

Specialized cell manufacturers saw inventory fall to around five days of production, indicating a balanced supply-demand dynamic. High-efficiency N-type cells in some formats are even facing tight supply.

Price trend:

Prices for all N-type cell formats increased this week. Strong restocking demand from both domestic and overseas markets helped transmit upstream cost increases to the cell segment. Whether this upward trend can continue will depend on the implementation of the export tax rebate policy and future overseas demand.

Modules

Prices this week:

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-glass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.

Supply-demand dynamics:

Leading module manufacturers still have residual delivery orders that provide order support, whereas second- and third-tier players are grappling with uncertain demand outlooks, forcing them to cut prices to secure deals.

Price trend:

Top-tier manufacturers continue to hold the line on pricing through collective efforts. Some have communicated to customers that prior orders signed at low prices have become difficult to fulfill due to fast-rising upstream costs. Whether these price hikes can be accepted by customers remains under negotiation. Meanwhile, wafer prices vary widely among smaller players, and many are offloading inventory at discounted prices.
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Overseas demand:

In Europe, module prices continued to decline in July amid the summer holiday season, which has dampened installation activity. In India, DCR module prices remained stable, but rising import prices for cells may gradually be passed on. In the U.S., FOB prices held steady for now, but the new tariff policy effective August 1 and the upcoming changes to the rules for securing current ITC rates for future solar projects may introduce more demand-side uncertainties.