Polysilicon and Wafers Pricing Anchored by Policy Expectations; Cells and Modules Under Pressure and Testing Lows

Polysilicon

Current polysilicon inventory remains above 520,000 mt. Approaching the International Workers’ Day holiday, combined with increasingly positive policy signals from relevant government departments and meetings since mid-April, market expectations for a new round of anti-overcapacity (“anti-involution or neijuan”) measures continue to strengthen. Recently, newly signed orders and shipment volumes have picked up, and transaction prices of polysilicon have remained relatively stable.

In the short term, rising futures prices and stronger anti-involution signals have further reinforced confidence in polysilicon price bottoming. However, no clear demand increment has emerged from the market. Therefore, from a supply-demand perspective, polysilicon prices still lack strong rebound momentum. Going forward, market trends will be influenced by both the implementation of specific policy measures and whether market demand can see a meaningful recovery.

Wafers

Wafer inventory continues to remain above 25 GW. Downstream operating rates among cell manufacturers have stabilized with a slight uptick, leading to modest demand improvement. Supported by rising polysilicon futures prices and policy expectations around upcoming industry self-discipline measures, sentiment in the wafer segment has improved, with wafer prices gradually stabilizing and showing bottoming signals.

In the short term, supply-demand fundamentals remain largely unchanged, while policy expectations provide downside support. Signs of price stabilization are becoming clearer. However, with domestic utility-scale solar projects expected to ramp up from May, demand for large-format wafers may see a phase of concentrated ordering, potentially leading to price divergence across different sizes. Close attention should be paid to changes in market project demand.

Cells

Cell inventory remains around one week. Overall transaction prices continue to stay at low levels, with 183 mm and 210R products generally priced at RMB 0.33/W, and trader prices below RMB 0.325/W. 210 mm cells show relatively stronger support at around RMB 0.335/W. Prices are gradually stabilizing, mainly due to: (1) wafer prices bottoming out and showing upward indications; and (2) strong policy expectations from government authorities, while cell manufacturers are already operating at losses and therefore have a stronger willingness to support prices.

In the short term, over the past half month, spot silver prices have declined, further weakening cost support for cells and limiting rebound momentum. If silver prices continue to fall, cell prices may still face downside pressure and could diverge depending on changes in downstream solar PV project demand.

Modules

Entering April, overseas demand has declined significantly. Solar installation projects in the domestic markets, affected by policy uncertainty and volatility across the value chain, are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a sharp decline in new module orders on a month-on-month basis.

Upstream segments have released clear price-cut signals, with wafer and cell prices continuing to fall, further eroding cost support for modules. Although leading Tier-1 manufacturers are still attempting to maintain higher offer prices, market competition remains intense, and actual transaction prices have shifted down to the RMB 0.75–0.78/W range. Transaction prices for large domestic utility-scale solar projects are generally below this range, with some previously signed low-price orders at RMB 0.72/W already entering the delivery phase.

In conclusion, in the short term, amid persistent supply-demand imbalance, continued cost declines, and cautious market sentiment, module prices are expected to remain under downward pressure.