Price Increases Across the Whole Industry, but Transactions Remain Muted as the PV Value Chain Awaits a Post-holiday Rebound

Polysilicon

Supply side:

Fundamental pressure remains pronounced in the polysilicon sector.Polysilicon inventories have now exceeded 470,000 tons and continue to rise,keeping the market firmly in an inventory-accumulation phase.

Demand side:

As upstream producers attempt to push new-order prices above RMB 66/kg,downstream buyers—constrained by the traditional Q1 off-season—have shown weak procurement appetite.Therefore,market transactions have largely stalled.This“prices without volume”situation indicates that market demand does not support a rapid price surge in the short term.

Price trend:

The market is currently in a period of intense confrontation between fundamentals and sentiment.While supply–demand relations remain weak,upstream producers’determination to support prices is firm,underpinned by the polysilicon reserve platform and industry self-discipline mechanisms.Under strategic price defense implemented by the seller,polysilicon prices are unlikely to see sharp spikes in Q1,but are expected to move out of the bottom range and enter a gradual,repair-driven upward path amid prolonged stalemate.

Wafers

Supply side:

The wafer segment is facing renewed inventory pressure.Market inventory levels are currently around 15 GW and show a mild upward trend.

Demand side:

Marker demand for wafers has faced a dilemma of seeing a dual pattern of excess inventory and price resistance.Downstream cell manufacturers have largely completed earlier restocking and now show limited procurement needs.At the same time,buyers’acceptance of high-priced new wafer offers is extremely low,freezing purchasing activity amid ongoing negotiations.

Price trend:

The market has entered a classic stalemate characterized by“quoted prices but little trading.”Despite wafer producers’firm determination to raise prices—and their strategic refusal to transact at low prices,pushing quotations up to RMB 1.4/piece,RMB 1.5/piece,and RMB 1.7/piece.However,actual deals remain scarce due to the wide gap in buyer and seller expectations.In the short term,this tug-of-war between aggressive seller price support and cautious buyer wait-and-see behavior is likely to persist.

Cells

Supply side:

Inventory pressure in the cell sector has risen modestly,with stock levels now equivalent to 7–9 days.Facing dual cost pressure from silver paste and wafers,as well as industry self-discipline requirements,supply-side strategy is shifting from“volume-for-price”to“production cuts to support pricing.”Further capacity reductions are expected as solar cell manufacturers seek to counter inventory growth and defend price floors.

Demand side:

Current quotations have breached downstream acceptance thresholds,driving buyers’willingness to take orders to a near standstill.Transactions are extremely limited in the cell segment,as downstream caution clashes sharply with upstream price firmness,temporarily draining market liquidity.

Price trend:

The cell market is currently in a negotiation vacuum marked by“prices without trades.”Supported by continued bullish expectations for silver paste costs,cell quotations have been forcibly lifted to RMB 0.39–0.40/W.Although transaction support is lacking,the firm stance of cell sellers in refusing low-priced orders suggests prices will remain locked at elevated levels in the short term,pending the tangible impact of further production cuts.

PV Modules

Supply side:

The industry is undergoing a sharp adjustment phase in which elevated costs are accelerating capacity shake-out.Therefore,under the combined pressure of industry self-discipline measures and rising silver paste prices,manufacturing costs have surged.With the Lunar New Year approaching and the traditional off-season deepening,module manufacturers have been compelled to expand production cuts and shutdowns to ease operational stress,accelerating the exit of less competitive capacity.The supply side is attempting to offset the cost crisis by increasing concentration and controlling output.

Demand side:

Demand remains seasonally weak and highly price-resistant.Both domestic and overseas market demand has contracted,with construction activity constrained in Q1.The market is largely sustained by the execution of existing orders.In response to price hikes of around RMB 0.04/W announced by leading players such as LONGi and Jinko Solar,downstream buyers have shown limited acceptance to the higher price,and new-order transactions remain scarce.This supply–demand mismatch has pushed the value chain into a deep stalemate,with trading activity at a near standstill.

Price trend:

The module market is currently caught between“sentiment-driven price calls”and“sluggish transactions reality.”In the short term,price increases are difficult to realize due to the lack of effective demand support.Looking ahead,however,with rigid upstream cost pass-through and continued supply-side optimization,the logic for module price increases is increasingly solid.After the Lunar New Year,as demand gradually recovers,module prices are expected to break the stalemate and enter a phase of substantive rebound and repair.