Wafer prices Start to Decline and Cells Prices continue to Drop

Polysilicon:
P-type polysilicon prices have remained stable throughout the week, while N-type polysilicon prices have increased slightly. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 83/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 81/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 93/KG.
On the supply side, new production capacity coming online this month is gradually ramping up, while production previously affected by accidents is now recovering. As a result, we anticipate a slight increase in actual polysilicon output in October, which should help alleviate the supply tightness. Turning to the demand side, crystal pulling manufacturers are still operating at high capacity, but the growing inventory of wafers is impacting the purchasing demand for raw materials among upstream manufacturers. Currently, the polysilicon market has shifted to oversupply, though high-quality polysilicon remains in strong demand. Furthermore, most of the polysilicon produced during the commissioning of new production capacity is of lower quality, contributing minimally to the supply of high-quality polysilicon. In summary, we expect an inflection point in prices by late October, and the price gap between P-type and N-type polysilicon is likely to persist.

Wafer:
Wafer prices have begun to decline this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 wafer is RMB 3.08/Pc, while G12 wafer is priced at RMB 4.08/Pc.
On the supply side, the increasing wafer inventory is putting mounting pressure on stock levels. Consequently, some second-tier wafer manufacturers are increasingly inclined to reduce their production capacity. However, the industry’s overall operating rate remains high. As for the demand side, downstream cell prices continue to slide, while wafer prices have only just begun their descent. Cell manufacturers, guided by their procurement strategy, are presently adopting a wait-and-see approach to monitor market dynamics. Currently, they are depleting their own wafer inventory and slowing down their purchase pace. It’s anticipated that the wafer inventory issue will become more pronounced, and wafer prices will continue to decrease after the National Day holiday.

Cell:
Cell prices have continued to decline this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.66/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.69/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.67/W.
Looking at the supply side, there’s a significant disparity in the inventory levels of various cell types. P-type cells have a relatively short turnover time, typically within a week, whereas N-type cells take about two weeks to cycle through. With the continuous expansion of TOPCon cell production capacity, we’re witnessing a significant output of lower-efficiency and test cells. These are more challenging to move in the market, leading to a surplus of N-type cells and consequently impacting their market prices.
Turning to the demand side, downstream module manufacturers are gearing up for the holiday season, resulting in reduced demand for cell purchases. Furthermore, the second half of the year still sees a dominance of orders for P-type modules, with demand for N-type modules not yet showing substantial growth. As a result, the consumption of N-type cells remains limited. In the short term, considering the declining wafer prices, sluggish demand, and accumulating inventory, we can expect cell prices to continue a slight downward trend.

Module:
Module prices have maintained stability throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 1.21/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.23/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.23/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.24/W.
Looking at the supply side, module manufacturers are generally taking 3-5 days off during the holiday season, with variations in production slowdowns among first and second-tier manufacturers. Consequently, overall module production is expected to decelerate. On the demand side, the overseas market demand remains somewhat subdued, but there are promising signs of an uptick in domestic centralized projects. Some projects are being bid at around RMB1.25/W, leading to improved profits for top-tier winning companies. As the holiday approaches, module transactions have decreased, resulting in stable module prices. We anticipate that after the holiday, the prices of upstream raw materials will continue to decline, putting downward pressure on module prices.