Pricing Tug-of-War Intensifies as PV Supply Chain Prices Continue to Slide

Polysilicon

Supply:

Polysilicon inventories remain elevated, currently exceeding 510,000 metric tons. The pace of inventory drawdown has been extremely slow, indicating a pronounced supply surplus in the market. Obviousl, polysilicon manufacturers are facing severe inventory accumulation and growing stockpile pressure.

Demand:

Weak downstream demand, combined with continued price declines in the wafer segment, has made wafer producers highly cautious in their procurement of polysilicon. Purchasing activity is mainly characterized by a wait-and-see approach and aggressive price negotiations.

Price trend:

Market transactions were scarce this week. Most deals involved second- and third-tier producers at around RMB 45–50/kg. Leading polysilicon manufacturers such as Tongwei are still quoting prices above RMB 50/kg, although market rumors suggest that some lower-grade polysilicon has already fallen to RMB 40–45/kg. In conclusion, amid persistent high inventories and downstream buyers exerting strong pricing pressure, polysilicon prices face significant downside risks in the short term.

Wafers

Supply:

Wafer inventories remain elevated at over 26 GW, and the oversupply situation has yet to improve. Wafer manufacturers continue to face considerable pressure in both shipment volumes and inventory reduction.

Demand:

The restart of operations in the downstream cell segment has been slower than expected, resulting in weak effective procurement demand for wafers and failing to provide meaningful support to the wafer market.

Price trend:

Both leading and smaller wafer manufacturers have begun sequential price cuts. Current mainstream prices have fallen to approximately: RMB 1.05/piece for 183N wafers, RMB 1.15/piece for 210RN wafers and RMB 1.35/piece for 210N wafers.

With weak downstream demand and continuing declines in upstream polysilicon prices eroding cost support, wafer prices have yet to stabilize and may decline further.

Cells

Supply:

The solar cell segment is currently in a gradual production restart phase. Inventory levels remain relatively high at roughly 8 days of stock, indicating continued destocking pressure across the market.

Demand:

Market demand has yet to show a meaningful recovery. Meanwhile, with the upcoming adjustment to export tax rebates, overseas demand for cells faces the risk of a sharp contraction, leaving the demand side with insufficient support.

Price trend:

Under the dual pressure of weak downstream demand and declining wafer prices undermining cost support, cell prices have begun to decline this week. Mainstream quotations have fallen to around RMB 0.41–0.42/W. Based on the current spot silver price of roughly RMB 21,000/kg, further declines of around RMB 0.05/W in cell prices remain possible.

PV Modules

Supply:

As upstream prices for polysilicon and wafers continue to decline, the cost floor for module production is steadily weakening, and spot supply in the market remains ample.

Demand: 

Current shipments are largely supported by overseas deliveries, while domestic installation project deployment has yet to meaningfully ramp up. Although centralized utility-scale projects in China are expected to gradually commence, tenders from state-owned enterprises continue to exert strong downward pressure on prices.

Price trend:

Although some tier-1 solar module manufacturers are still attempting to keep quotes above RMB 0.80/W, the mainstream spot transaction price has already fallen to around RMB 0.78/W. Against the backdrop of both weak market demand and collapsing upstream costs, module prices are also expected to face further downside risks.