March Sees a Rebound in Solar PV Production, with Module Prices Showing a V-Shaped Recovery

Polysilicon

The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 40/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 38/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.

• Transaction Dynamics: This week, polysilicon manufacturers have started signing orders, but as negotiations are still ongoing, overall transaction volumes have not significantly increased. A few manufacturers have attempted to increase prices, but downstream acceptance remains low.

• Inventory Dynamics: Polysilicon inventory levels have decreased to approximately 250,000–260,000 tons. Driven by multiple factors, including increased futures warehouse registrations and rising downstream demand, polysilicon inventory can be consumed faster.

• Supply Trends: Under the consensus on self-imposed production cuts, polysilicon manufacturers are maintaining low utilization rates. Compared to the same period last year, production remains at a relatively low level, leading to expectations that polysilicon prices will stay firm.

• Price Trends: Prices have stabilized this week. With a market sentiment favoring price increases, there is potential for an upward trend. However, it is important to note the dual impact of the futures market, which could moderate the price fluctuations compared to the previous cycle.

Wafers

The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.18/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.55/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.33/Pc.

• Supply Trends: In March, wafer production is set to increase slightly to the range of 50–51 GW. Leading specialized wafer manufacturers remain cautious in their production strategies, given the constraints of self-imposed production cuts. Even as demand picks up in Q2, the overall production increase is expected to be moderate and controlled.

• Price Trends: Prices for the 210RN wafer segment have risen this week due to a shift in supply-demand dynamics, with downstream demand gaining momentum. Other wafer sizes have remained stable. If downstream demand continues to grow and price increases are successfully implemented, there is a possibility of further price hikes within the month.

Cell

The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.330/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.290/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.290/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.300/W.

• Supply Trends: Cell production in March is expected to rise by approximately 22% month-over-month, driven by a Q2 installation peak, with total production reaching 54–55 GW. The top five manufacturers contribute around 70% of this output.

• Price Trends: Prices for 210RN cells have increased as expected this week, supported by tight supply and strong demand.

Modules

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.      

• Supply Trends: In March, module production is expected to increase due to multiple short-term positive factors, including the new “531” policy and the traditional overseas peak season.

• Domestic Demand: Ground-mounted PV projects are still in the planning stage, while new policies affecting returns on investment may drive a temporary surge in distributed solar installations.

• Overseas Demand: In Europe, module prices have started to recover, with distributors and installers restocking, leading to potential price adjustments. High-efficiency product segments are experiencing improved supply-demand balance. In India, the PM Surya Ghar initiative is expected to boost marginal demand. Given the limited domestic supply, module prices may rise.

• Price Trends: Prices remained stable this week. Bifacial M10-TOPCon: Leading manufacturers’ quoted prices range between ¥0.64–0.73/W. Bifacial G12-HJT: Mainstream manufacturers’ price quotes are between ¥0.68–0.80/W.

Recently, more manufacturers have announced price hikes. Some leading firms have implemented a second round of price increases, prompting tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers to follow suit. The module market appears to be cultivating a sentiment of “buying higher, selling higher.”