PV Supply Chain Under Broad Pressure: Weak Supply and Demand in Tandem, Price Center of Gravity Continues to Drift Lower

Polysilicon

Supply side: Industry inventories remain high and continue to rise, with no sign of relief in the ongoing stock build-up trend. The imbalance between supply and demand in the polysilicon segment is becoming increasingly severe.

Demand side: Affected by expectations of further price declines in April, ingot pullers and wafer producers are being extremely cautious in procurement, relying mainly on consumption of their own inventories while waiting for lower purchasing points. As a result, actual market transactions remain extremely sluggish. Meanwhile, weak market demand signals have further deepened bearish sentiment across the market.

Price trend: Transaction prices for rod silicon (dense/compact polysilicon) have now broadly fallen below RMB 35/kg, while granular silicon has dropped below RMB 33/kg. This round of price decline is being driven by two forces: first, second- and third-tier producers and traders are aggressively liquidating inventory at steep discounts, directly destabilizing the overall market. Second, downstream wafer prices are themselves in continuous decline, giving ingot pullers strong motivation to push polysilicon prices lower in order to control costs. In the near term, polysilicon prices still face substantial downside pressure.

Wafers

Supply side: Inventory continues to run at persistently high levels, with current backlogs holding above 25 GW. Although leading wafer producers have initiated production curtailments, the overall pace and scale of cuts lag significantly behind the reductions being made at the downstream cell level, meaning the existing supply-demand surplus has yet to be meaningfully relieved.

Demand side: Downstream restocking momentum is notably weak. As cell manufacturers progressively enter production curtailment mode, their purchasing demand for wafers continues to contract. Since downstream cuts are proportionally larger, the relative demand picture facing the wafer segment is deteriorating further.

Price trend: Wafer prices continue to decline under the dual pressure of collapsing upstream polysilicon price support and rapidly shrinking downstream demand. In the near term, the market has not yet fully stabilized — but following the prior wave of declines, the scope for further downside is increasingly limited, and some early-bottom-fishing sentiment is beginning to emerge. The subsequent direction of the market will need to closely track movements in upstream polysilicon prices.

Cells

Supply side: Inventory destocking remains difficult, with overall cell inventory still flat at around 8–10 days. Pressure from both inventory clearance and shipments continues to build. That said, as cell manufacturers begin implementing meaningful production cuts in April, the supply side is starting to show signs of contraction, creating room for a subsequent improvement in supply-demand dynamics.

Demand side: Both domestic and overseas market purchasing have experienced a pronounced phase of pullback. Market trading activity has cooled sharply, overall buying interest is severely deficient, and demand across the board has weakened — providing little effective support to upstream segments.

Price trend: Under the combined squeeze of upstream wafer price declines, retreating silver costs, and shrinking downstream demand, manufacturer asking prices are continuously moving lower. To rapidly recover cash and relieve inventory pressure, some producers have resorted to aggressive low-price dumping strategies, further intensifying competitive undercutting — with isolated transactions at extreme lows already touching RMB 0.34/W. In the near term, while April production cuts have provided some degree of price floor support, the subsequent trajectory will be highly correlated with silver price movements; near-term silver market fluctuations warrant close monitoring as a key risk factor.

PV Modules 

Supply side: As incoming orders have dropped sharply, module manufacturers are simultaneously cutting production schedules significantly. Smaller and mid-sized producers in particular are facing severe order shortages, with utilization rates and actual output both under clear pressure.

Demand side: Both domestic and overseas demand are experiencing a simultaneous cooldown, leaving the market in a gap between demand drivers. Overseas restocking momentum weakened notably in April, while domestic demand failed to step in as an effective relay, resulting in a sharp contraction in overall module order volumes.

Price trend: Although headline asking prices from leading manufacturers remain outwardly firm, actual transaction prices have already begun to soften. As upstream cell prices continue to fall in succession, the cost-support rationale for module pricing is further eroded. The industry cost floor has now approached RMB 0.75/W, and some smaller producers desperate to maintain utilization are accepting orders at even lower thresholds. Caught between collapsing costs and sluggish demand, module prices still have room to test further lows, and are expected to gradually converge toward the RMB 0.70–0.75/W range in the near term.