Polysilicon
This Week's Prices:
This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34.5/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32.0/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 31.5/KG.
Market Activity:
Polysilicon procurement remains stagnant in both volume and price. Some polysilicon producers are trying to to raise their quptes as they attempted to take advantage of anticipated favorable policies regarding polysilicon production restructuring. However, downstream response to higher polysilicon prices has been muted. Considering planned capacity ramp-ups this month and already high inventory levels, ingot manufacturers are prioritizing consuming build-up stock rather than paying the uncertain premium on policy expectations.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, polysilicon inventory has exceeded 370,000 tons. Leading manufacturers continue ramping up hydropower-based output, with other polysilicon producers following suit. This is creating polysilicon oversupply in July, likely pushing inventories even higher. Some producers may even increase output in defiance of the trend to secure bargaining power ahead of future production controls.
Supply & Demand Outlook:
During the wet season, polysilicon output for July is estimated at 110,000–115,000 tons, returning to low double-digit MoM growth. This growth is mainly driven by leading manufacturers ramping up polysilicon capacity in Southwest China. On the demand side, wafer manufacturers are struggling to consume their inventory, while downstream buyers continue to press for lower wafer prices. As a result, wafer segment shows little intention to make large-scale polysilicon purchases. Most transactions involve low-priced mixed feedstock or granular silicon. In summary, polysilicon oversupply may intensify this month.
Price Trend:
Prices for all types of N-type polysilicon remained stable this week. Although leading polysilicon suppliers attempted to raise quotes, acceptance in the ingot segment was limited. Even if production control policies are implemented, it will take time to affect the polysilicon supply. In conclusion, given the pressure from supply surplus and high inventories, polysilicon prices are expected to remain under downward pressure and consolidate within a narrow range.
Wafers
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 0.88/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.20/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.00/Pc.
Supply & Demand Dynamics:
Monthly wafer production stood at 56–57 GW, indicating a supply-demand balance. However, continued price declines in cells have weakened procurement demand for wafers among cell manufacturers, slowing down wafer inventory digestion. The 183N wafer type is currently priced but not selling, indicating weak demand and growing inventories. For the 210RN wafer, after capacity upgrades led to output ramp-ups, signs of wafer oversupply emerged, triggering a price correction in this sector.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, wafer inventory remains above 2 billion pieces, with 183N accounting for over 50%. After production ramp-up, 210RN wafer inventory has also begun to increase.
Price Trend:
Prices for 210RN and 210N declined this week. Leading suppliers held 183N prices firm around RMB 0.88/piece, while smaller wafer manufacturers rushed to clear inventory at RMB 0.83–0.85/piece. The 210RN price temporarily stabilized at RMB 1.00/piece but faces downward pressure as supply increases.
Cells
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.225/W. The price of G12 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.245W and that of G12R N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.245/W.
Supply & Demand Dynamics:
183N cells are quoted in the market but see no actual sales, with market demand rapidly shrinking and cell suppliers continuing to cut prices to clear their stock. Meanwhile, capacity from 210RN cell renovation production line is steadily increasing, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. This triggered a correction in cell price during the week. For July, cell output is estimated at 56–57 GW, still outpacing module production and thus putting upward pressure on cell inventories.
Inventory Status:
As of this week, specialized cell manufacturers are holding about 10 days'worth of inventory. Due to supply exceeding demand, cell inventory levels may rise again this month, with 183N taking up a growing share.
Price Trend:
All N-type cell types saw price cuts this week. Weak module demand and upstream price declines continue to weigh on cell pricing. Looking ahead, cell price declines may narrow by month-end.
Modules
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-glass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.
Supply & Demand Dynamics:
Module output for July reached 52–53 GW, a MoM increase of around 6%. Order volumes remain polarized. Specifically, leading module manufacturers secured most of the growth, while second- and third-tier producers faced poor orders and had to continue price-cutting to secure deals.
In the domestic market, demand is mainly supported by utility-scale PV projects, but the delivery season has not yet begun. With buyers cautious about ongoing module price declines, many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, forcing module suppliers to clear inventory at lower prices.
Price Trend:
Some top-tier suppliers lowered quotes by RMB 0.01–0.03/W, with transaction prices falling to RMB 0.62–0.67/W. Second- and third-tier manufacturers offered even steeper discounts of RMB 0.03–0.04/W, but with limited effectiveness in getting more orders.
Overseas Demand:
Europe: Prices fell in June due to an influx of low-cost modules, depressing the overall price center. With summer holidays approaching, market demand is gradually weakening.
India: DCR module prices slightly increased due to government project demand and rising costs from anti-dumping duties on some BOM. Local manufacturing costs rose, while imported module prices dipped slightly due to oversupply.
USA: FOB prices slightly increased. The version of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) approved by the Senate removed new consumption tax clauses related to FEOC participation, providing temporary relief. ITC/PTC incentives still apply for projects completed by end-2027, pending House approval.
