According to SMM research, global photovoltaic (PV) cell production among surveyed companies in August is estimated at around 59 GW, up 1.7% month-on-month. Of this, production in China stands at 58–59 GW, a 2% increase from the previous month, with an industry operating rate of 61%. This growth is primarily driven by sustained demand from overseas markets.
By technology: The market structure is undergoing significant change. The share of P-type cells in domestic production edged up slightly to 3%, while N-type cells continued a steady growth trend. Specifically, TOPCon technology’s share increased further from 90% in July to 91%, consolidating its market dominance; HJT technology dropped sharply to 1.2% due to weak demand in the utility-scale market; and BC technology rose to 5.3% thanks to demand from the distributed generation segment.
Over the past year, TOPCon’s market share has grown by nearly 10 percentage points year-on-year, supported by its technological maturity, market demand advantages, and production cost-efficiency. In stark contrast, PERC technology has continued to decline, with its share falling to 3% in August, now sustained mainly by overseas orders. BC technology, buoyed by both domestic and international distributed market demand, has maintained stable growth.
By size: The market continues to shift toward larger-sized cells. The share of 183 N fell from 31% in July to 27% in August, while the 210 series maintained growth: 210 RN increased from 45% to 47%, and 210 N from 25% to 26%. Among these, 210 RN orders improved significantly in August due to downstream cyclical restocking demand. This trend is driven by the more competitive per-watt cost of larger-sized cells and the economic benefits of upgrading production lines from 183 N to 210 RN. Between June and August this year, line upgrades alone are expected to add over 40 GW of new annual 210 RN capacity.
Supply-demand balance: In August, the PV cell market is expected to remain in a state of tight balance. Domestically, effective module demand is estimated at 45–46 GW. Overseas, demand frontloading driven by favorable policy windows has significantly increased the proportion of overseas orders for leading manufacturers—especially for 183 mm products. Cell exports this month are expected to exceed 10 GW, compared with 7–8 GW in July, enabling demand to absorb available supply. While the sustainability of overseas demand is limited and some inventory build-up may occur at the end of the month, overall inventory levels should remain manageable and unlikely to put significant downward pressure on prices.
Other segments in the value chain: Upstream, wafer production has remained stable, with surveyed Chinese companies producing 52–53 GW in total, up 0.09% month-on-month. Downstream, module production continued to contract slightly, with domestic output by surveyed Chinese companies at 45–46 GW, down 0.51% from the previous month.
Conclusion: The current value chain shows a differentiated production pattern of “stable wafers, slight cell growth, and narrowing modules,” reflecting short-term supply-demand optimization and structural adjustments in the cell segment. While short-term growth is supported by overseas market demand, in the long run, cell profit margins will continue to face pressure from the module segment. Additionally, some companies have reported that the planned cancellation of PV cell and module export tax rebates may be delayed. This uncertainty could prompt overseas customers to postpone procurement plans, dampening purchasing sentiment. If overseas demand declines earlier than expected as a result, cell prices could face downward pressure sooner than anticipated.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YOsDBsb8Ut-uxu-HiHPTsw
