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TrendForce: Declining Prices Fail to Dampen Investment Enthusiasm; PV Project Signings, Operations, and Production Experience Continuous Growth in June

published: 2023-07-17 17:29

In June 2023, the cost of polysilicon production was surpassed by the falling prices, and the prices of polysilicon, wafers, and cells decline at a relatively moderate and stabilized rate. Although customer demand has not yet seen a significant surge, the bidding price for modules continued to decrease. Surprisingly, this decline in prices did not diminish the investment enthusiasm of PV enterprises. In fact, June witnessed a thriving environment for the signing, operation, and production of photovoltaic projects.
Operation Projects: 13 Projects Were Successfully Operated in June, with a Primary Focus on Wafers and cells

According to EnergyTrend, the new energy research center of TrendForce, June 2023 saw the successful operation of 13 PV projects covering all sectors of the PV industry chain. These projects included the production of 100,000 tons of silicon material, 5GW of crystal pulling, and 130GW of silicon wafers. Additionally, 120GW of batteries, 8GW of modules, and 15.8GW of cells and modules were put into production.

Polysilicon: On June 16th, Geely officially commenced its project for the annual production of 100,000 tons of polysilicon using the physical method, marking the construction of the first phase of the photovoltaic industry chain.

Crystal Pulling: Tidesolar’s 5GW annual production of mono-Si crystal pulling in Gansu Province began operations on June 28th.
Wafers: Three projects related to wafer production were initiated in June. Shuangliang Group and SunRev invested in a 25GW large-size PV wafer project, LONGi started its annual production of 100GW mono wafers, and Tidesolar initiated a 5GW crystal slicing project in Jiangsu Province. These projects collectively accounted for a total capacity of 130GW.

Cells: In June, there were five operational cell projects with a combined scale of 120GW, of which 70GW comprised N-type cells, accounting for 58.33% of the total capacity. LONGi’s annual output of 50GW mono cell project was the largest in terms of capacity. Projects that employed TOPCon cell technology included DasSolar’s 25GW N-type TOPCon high-efficiency mono cell project, TCL Zhonghuan’s Industry 4.0 smart factory for 25GW N-type TOPCon high-efficiency solar cells in Guangzhou, and Osda’s PV project with an annual output of 12GW N-Type TOPCon solar cells. These projects had a combined capacity of 62GW. Additionally, Linuo Group’s Phase II project in Linyi involved an 8GW heterojunction cell project using HJT cell technology.

Modules: Hoshine’s annual output of 8GW solar photovoltaic modules was the only module project that commenced production in June.

Cell and Module: In June, Huasun and SolTrend initiated two projects utilizing HJT technology for cell and module production, with a total capacity of 15.8GW.

A total of 10 projects were initiated in June, primarily focusing on crystal pulling, wafers, and modules.

According to TrendForce statistics, June 2023 witnessed 10 PV projects, encompassing 50,000 tons of polysilicon, 52GW crystal pulling and wafers, 16GW cells, 33.9GW modules, and 2GW cell and module production.

As for polysilicon, Jingnuo’s Phase I project with an annual output of 50,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon began production in June.

As for crystal pulling and wafers, LONGi’s 46GW silicon sticks and slicing project in Erdos and Jp Solar’s Phase I project of 12GW high-efficiency mono silicon sticks and wafers in Karamay also commenced production during the same period.

Cells: In June, Hoyuan Green Energy’s 16GW capacity project successfully unveiled its first N-type TOPCon high-efficiency cell in Xuzhou.

Modules: Five projects with a total capacity of 33.9GW commenced production in June. The largest among them was Tongwei's 16GW PV module project at its Jintang base. ENF’s Dongzhi base initiated a 6GW module project (Phase I) with a specific requirement for TOPCon modules. Das Solar’s Zhangzhou Base and Linuo Group's Linyi base implemented 4GW module projects (Phase II), focusing on high-efficiency modules.

Furthermore, Shangyao New Energy’s 2GW high-efficiency photovoltaic cell and module project in Xinjiang successfully began production, marking the introduction of the first high-efficiency photovoltaic cell module in the province.

Signing Projects: The signing of projects continued to thrive in June, with a primary concentration in cell and module initiatives.

According to TrendForce statistics, in June 2023, the signing capacity for wafers reached 21GW, crystal pulling reached 70GW, cells reached 111GW, modules reached 81GW, and cells and modules combined reached 14.8GW. Currently, there are no signing projects for polysilicon.

In terms of wafers, DAH Solar, JA, and Huamin Holdings signed or proposed projects with a total size of 21GW. Notably, DAH Solar's signing project involved 7GW of high-efficiency N-type wafers.

Crystal pulling projects witnessed five upcoming signings, with the project capacity for Condensing Energy Technology’s second phase of mono silicon sticks in Beitun District yet to be announced. Additionally, JA, LONGi, and Huamin Holdings signed projects with a cumulative capacity of 70GW, including Huamin Holdings’ phase I annual production capacity of 10GW high-efficiency N-type mono silicon sticks, which is planned to operate in Dali, Yunnan.

Cells: According to TrendForce, the signed project capacity for cells in June 2023 reached 111GW. N-type production projects accounted for 27GW, equivalent to 24.32% of the total capacity. Notably, Tension Energy’s high-efficiency photovoltaic cell project in Yancheng contributed 10GW to the N-type production capacity. Additionally, JP Solar’s 10GW HJT cell project in Leshan, Sichuan province focused on HJT cell technology. The largest signed project involved Tongwei’s annual production capacity of 25GW cells in Chengdu, expected to be completed and commence production in 2024.

Modules: In June 2023, there were 8 signed module projects with a total capacity of 81GW, including a requirement of 17GW for high-efficiency modules. Several new entrants and established companies such as JA, Tongwei, Hongjingtian, and Haohui Tech were involved in these projects. The largest signed project was Tongwei’s 20GW module project in Chengdu, Phase II, scheduled for completion and production in 2025. Two projects involving both cells and modules were signed in June: Daiming Solar’s 10GW photovoltaic cell and module project in Sheyang, Jiangsu Province, and Shanghai Electric’s 4.8GW heterojunction cell and module project in Nantong Haimen, Phase I.

Overall, in June 2023, despite the photovoltaic industry chain experiencing some instability, the pace of enterprise expansion remained unaffected. Polysilicon prices declined below the production cost for certain enterprises, leading to a slowdown in production. The destocking process significantly impacted wafer production, resulting in a gradual rebound in the operation rate. Strong demand for cells supported a high operation rate. Module shipments faced significant pressure, leading to lower bidding prices. However, stable prices for upstream raw materials and sustained investment enthusiasm among module enterprises were observed.

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