The Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA) published “PV Outlook 2030” in December, 2013. Later on, JPEA published another version and revised the 2020 PV installation target from 49.4GW that was original stated in the 2013 version to 65.7GW. In which, residential PV dropped from 18.3GW to 16.3GW, while installations below 1MW increased from 17.0GW to 25.2GW; Installations above 1MW soared from 14.1GW to 24.2GW. The rise in mega-solar power stations will boost total amount of installation.
The Cumulative PV Installation Forecast in Japan (Source: JPEA)
JPEA estimated that residential market (below 10kW) will continue to grow after Japan’s preferential rate program comes to an end in July 2015. However, by then, megasolar power station growth will turn slower. Therefore, residential PV capacity is expected to reach 36.4GW by 2030; 34.6GW for installations below 1MW; and 29.1GW for megasolar power stations. The total will be approximately 100GW by 2030 and it will even reach 190GW by 2050.
Percentage Trend of Solar Power in the Overall Electricity Demand (Source: JPEA)
JPEA projected that solar PV will represent about 11% of the total electricity demand when PV capacity reaches 100GW in 2030. When the ratio exceeds 10%, solar PV will have to integrate with energy storage systems, water heaters, and electric vehicles. On the other hand, JPEA estimated that by 2042, depreciated PV equipments can generate about 930,000,000,000kWh of electricity. In other words, there will be plenty of electricity that will not require fossil fuel and with zero generation costs.
The next target after reaching PV capacity of 100GW is to satisfy total residential demand of about 260GW. If residential market continues to grow 6GW every year, this target can be achieved by 2055.