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Sneak Peek into the Future: 2019Q3 Global PV Demand Report Shows You 5 Markets to Watch

published: 2019-12-11 0:00

According to EnergyTrend’s Global Market Demand Report, the global installed capacity by the end of 2019Q2 stood at 48.9GW.

In Q2 2019 alone, 27.9GW of installed capacity has been achieved worldwide, up by 32.4% QoQ.

Regarding the regional markets, the growth in Asian market is still estimated to be the strongest among all.

The huge increase of Vietnam's installed capacity in 2019Q2 is the reason behind the surge.

China: The 2019Q4 Demand Is Estimated to Reach 14GW

China alone has achieved the highest cumulative installed PV capacity among all the major markets (185.6GW), accounting for 36% of the world's total, according to Global Market Demand Report.

The newly installed PV capacity is going up
During the 1st half of 2019, the newly installed PV capacity has increased by 11.14GW, including:

  • 75GW is for large-scale PV power plants
  • 39GW is for distributed PV power plants

The 2019Q2 newly installed capacity is mostly from large-scale PV power plants
Concerning the quarterly performance, the newly installed capacity of 2019Q2 is 5.9GW, up 13.5% QoQ.

The newly installed capacity is mainly contributed by large-scale PV projects, accounting for 73.1% of newly installed capacity in 2019Q2.

National policies are key to China’s increasing market demand

The national policies are the engine that drives the rapid growth and market demand of the PV industry in China.

The total subsidy budget for 2019 new solar photovoltaic projects is 3 billion RMB, including:

  • The residential photovoltaics (750 million RMB, 3.5GW),
  • The demand for 2019 subsidized auction projects is about 1.7 billion RMB
  • The remaining amount of subsidies is 550 million.

United States: The 2019Q4 Demand Is Estimated to Reach 6.3GW

The US Demand is expected to grow with ground-mounted types as the popular choice

According to Global Market Demand Report, the overall market demand is estimated to keep growing steadily before the ITC is reduced to 10% in 2022.

The overall installed PV capacity could reach 12.6-13GW in 2019, up 22% YoY, as stated in the latest 2019Q3 report from SEIA.

The majority of the newly installed capacity will be completed in 2019Q4.

The Trade War: The latest update
The product list of Section 301, including PV inverters, is still increasing. The tariff remains to be 25%

Section 201 tariff exemption of the bifacial products will be rescinded, effective October 28. The tariff is again 25%.

India: The 2019Q4 Demand Is Estimated to Reach 2.6GW

Market demand was down due to Indian election, but it is bouncing back
Indian election is hitting the market demand hard in 2019Q2, which has decreased by 53% since last quarter.

However, it is estimated that the market demand may grow after 2019H2.

Safeguard, ALMM, BCD will have an impact on the market demand
Safeguard has caused a decrease in the export volume of modules from China.

The “Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM)”, which will become effective in March 2020, is expected to have an impact on the market demand in 2020H2.

Basic Customs Duty (BCD) has been proposed in September 2019. Its draft is still under discussion.

Japan: The 2019Q4 Demand Is Estimated to Reach 1.8GW

Japan’s 2019H2 & 2020H1 demand is expected to be higher than in 2018
According to the Global Market Demand Report, Japan’s market demand is estimated to increase from 2019H2 to 2020H1 due to the new requirement issued by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).

Japan’s FiT rates are sinking
According to METI, the FiT in 2019 has been reduced by ¥2~4/kWh in comparison with 2018.

Regarding the targeted long-term price of the commercial solar photovoltaic systems, METI still maintains its target of ¥7 /kWh (excl. Tax) by 2025.

Moreover, the residential PV systems are also targeted to reach the same price (¥7 /kWh, excl. Tax) as the grid by 2025.

Australia: The 2019Q4 Demand Is Estimated to Reach 1.1GW

Australia’s installed PV capacity is rising with a concentration of the residential types
It is estimated that the cumulative installed PV capacity in Australia may exceed 15GW by the end of 2019.

Up until 2019Q2, Australia's cumulative installed PV capacity is 13GW (the newly installed capacity of 2019H1 is 1.7GW), up 50.4% YoY.

Regarding the installation types, the majority of the PV systems are still concentrated in residential types at the current stage.

Australia’s annual market demand may exceed 4GW.
The study commissioned by the CEFC& Property Council of Australia indicated that Australia has a potential demand of 179 GW in terms of the rooftop types by estimation.

The current installed capacity is merely 5%, which shows that the residential PV market still has a lot of untapped potential.

For more information, please refer to our Global Market Demand Report.

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