The supply of lithium carbonate are slightly loose, and the price has been at the bottom. According to statistics, it is expected that the global lithium carbonate production capacity will reach 1.409 million tons by the end of 2024 and 1.642 million tons by 2025 under the condition that the new lithium carbonate production capacity can be put into operation as scheduled on the supply side. On the demand side, in the context of the slowdown in the growth rate of electric vehicle sales, the demand for lithium carbonate in the field of electric vehicles from 2023 to 2025 will be 535,000, 652,000, and 757,000 tons, respectively. In the energy storage sector, under the current installed capacity expectation, its lithium carbonate demand is expected to reach 72,000, 123,000 and 196,000 tons. In addition, coupled with the demand for lithium carbonate in consumption and traditional fields, the global demand for lithium carbonate is expected to reach 0.957, 1.154 and 1.354 million tons respectively from 2023 to 2025. The relative demand for production capacity is still in a state of relative surplus, with lithium carbonate prices falling sharply, from 510,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2023 to 96,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024, a decrease of up to 80%. As of the end of April 2024, the price of lithium carbonate has rebounded to 112,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 15%, and the price has been at the bottom.
Chart: Lithium carbonate prices continue to decline (10,000 yuan/ton)
Sources: Wind, KYSEC
It is expected that by 2025, the new installed capacity of the global energy storage market will reach 281.7GWh, and the worth of new installed capacity will reach 283.98 billion yuan. Among them, energy storage in China, the United States, Europe and emerging markets are expected to achieve rapid development.
China: We estimate that the new installed capacity of pre-meter energy storage in China is expected to reach 127.3 GWh in 2025, and the installed capacity of industrial and commercial energy storage behind the meter is expected to reach 13.1 GWh. Both application markets are expected to achieve rapid growth.
Europe: We expect Europe to install 18.9 GWh of pre-meter storage capacity and 21.1 GWh of post-meter residential storage and C&I storage by 2025. Affected by the previous high inventory, the growth rate of energy storage installed capacity after the balance sheet in 2023 will be lowered to a certain extent, but the development of large storage is expected to accelerate.
United States: We expect the U.S. to install 57 GWh of new pre-meter storage capacity by 2025, and 4.9 GWh of back-of-the-meter residential storage and commercial and industrial energy storage capacity. The installed capacity of energy storage in the United States is expected to achieve rapid growth under the background of IRA policy stimulus and the increase in the proportion of local new energy installed capacity.
Emerging markets: We expect that by 2025, the new installed capacity of front-of-meter energy storage in Australia, the Middle East and Africa is expected to reach 32.5GWh, and the installed capacity of the behind-the-meter energy storage market represented by South Africa and Southeast Asia is expected to reach 6.9GWh.
Source: KYSEC
