With demand for PV installations beginning to wane on the advent of winter, PV prices are in somewhat confusion. Prices of overseas modules dropping further, those of upstream polysilicon continuing to rise, and midstream prices wavering, as players are waiting for wafer and PV cell suppliers to put forth quotes for December, according to EnergyTrend.
An uncertain factor is China's decision to review once again the anti-dumping duty rates on South Korean polysilicon imports. Blockage of import from South Korea will aggravate shortage on China's polysilicon market and jack up prices. The case will not affect the market in the first half of 2017, since it is still in the investigation stage.
After completion of repair and maintenance, some Chinese polysilicon plants still cannot meet demands and strained supply on the market persists, as some plants have reduce output in preparation for repair and maintenance in December. Therefore, polysilicon prices have risen to RMB 135-138/kg.
Supply of multi-si wafers has been sufficient, following release of new capacities in November. While some second-tier Chinese suppliers have cut prices slightly, most suppliers are still embracing a wait-and-see stance and trend of multi-si wafer prices in December won't become clear until leading player GCL-Poly has offered its quotes.
Strong pressure from the downstream sector has led to slight price cut for PV cells but transaction amounts are limited, as trend for multi-si wafer prices remains unclear. Prices of high-efficiency multi-si PV cells, with 18.4% or higher conversion efficiency, range from US$0.235-0.24/W now, which are expected to drop slightly. Quotes on the Chinese market stand at RMB 1.8-1.85/W. Prices of regular mono-si PV cells are steady, reaching US$0.25-0.255/W in Taiwan and RMB 1.9-1.95/W in China.
(Analysis offered by Corrine Lin, analyst at EnergyTrend. Translated by a contracted translator with TrendForce Corp.)