Polysilicon
Inventory: The industry’s overall polysilicon inventory remains above 420,000 tons. This is mainly due to increased polysilicon output in October, while downstream ingot (crystal-pulling) manufacturers turned more cautious in procurement amid weakening demand, leading to a mild rise in polysilicon stock levels.
Supply: Operating rates across the industry show mixed trends. On one hand, Hongshi Haidong's production line has reached full production, and capacity ramp-ups continue at Xinte Energy and Lihao. On the other hand, Tongwei’s Baotou facility has undergone maintenance, while its Yunnan and Leshan plants, along with GCL’s Leshan base, have started to reduce their operating rates. As a result, total polysilicon output in November is expected to decline by about 8,000 tons month-on-month, reaching around 127,000 tons.
Demand: On the demand side, crystal-pulling activity is also showing a downward trend, leaving the market in a situation of seeing weak supply and weak demand.
Price Outlook: Looking ahead, polysilicon prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels. However, with November supply contracting and market expectations of potential government-led stockpiling policies, prices are likely to stay weak but stable.
Wafers
Inventory: Wafer inventory has now surged to over 21 GW, a relatively high level. Growing bearish sentiment toward future prices has dampened downstream procurement willingness, hindering wafer shipments. To reduce risk, some small manufacturers and traders have already begun early sell-offs, further intensifying market pressure.
Supply and Demand: Market demand continues to weaken, dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment. On the supply side, in response to the ongoing price downtrend and high inventory levels, some wafer makers have started production cuts, and a consensus in production reduction to stabilize prices is gradually forming across the industry.
Price Outlook: The overall average transaction price for wafers continues to shift downward. Market divergence is evident—leading enterprises are still trying to maintain price levels, while second- and third-tier manufacturers have seen notable price drops, with 183N and 210RN wafer prices approaching RMB 1.30/piece.
Looking forward, despite the ongoing supply-demand imbalance, if polysilicon prices remain resilient, they will offer cost support for wafers. Combined with the industry’s consensus to reduce output, the downside potential for wafer prices is expected to be limited.
Cells
Inventory: Cell inventory remains around 5–7 days, an overall acceptable level, though differentiation persists in cell sizes. Inventory pressure is mainly concentrated in 210RN cells, while 183N cell stocks have risen noticeably due to weaker Indian demand.
Supply and Demand: Demand weakness can be seen in the cell sector. Demand for 210RN cells remains sluggish; 183N cells are being hit hard by declining Indian orders; and 210N demand is also showing signs of softening. As centralized solar PV projects in northern China gradually wind down, module makers are scaling back cell procurement and exerting downward pricing pressure.
Price Outlook: With both supply and demand weakening, cell prices face significant downside risk. By size, 183N cells are sliding toward RMB 0.30/W, with some small manufacturers already selling below this level. 210RN remains weakly stable at RMB 0.28–0.285/W, while 210N, previously firm, is now under pressure and trending toward RMB 0.30/W. Future price movement will depend on upstream wafer price trends and the extent of production cuts adopted by cell manufacturers.
PV Modules
As northern China enters the winter season, outdoor solar PV projects are winding down, and overseas demand is simultaneously contracting, resulting in insufficient module orders and weakening demand both domestically and abroad.
In the short term, the market relies mainly on domestic centralized projects, where 210-format modules have shown relatively strong demand. However, as these projects of northern regions reach completion, demand for 210-format modules is expected to drop sharply next month, leading to potential price declines. Module manufacturers will face the dual pressure of further production cuts and price reductions forced by end users. Meanwhile, mainstream module prices remain around RMB 0.65/W, but shipments are challenging. Overall, market demand for modules is clearly weakening, order backlogs are shrinking, and price pressure is expected to persist across the entire PV supply chain.
