Investigated by global market intelligence organization TrendForce’s research division EnergyTrend, despite the persistence of the global trade wars, Taiwan’s PV cell demand continued to increase in 1H13 compared with that in 1H12. The amount of shipment reached 3.2GW and the growth rate turned out to be 6.7%. Under the influence of Europe’s subsidy reduction and the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy trade policies within Europe and USA, there’s no doubt that Taiwan’s PV cell manufacturers were the direct beneficiaries. The shipment quantity of each manufacturer increased compared to that in 1H12. In addition, the total shipment quantity of Taiwan’s PV cells in 1H13 accounted for 16% of the worldwide shipment quantity, while the top three companies, Motech, Gintech, and Neo Solar Power represented 65% of Taiwan’s total shipment quantity in 1Q13.
EnergyTrend indicated that Taiwan’s PV cells are mainly exported to China, Europe, Japan, USA, and South Korea; the proportion of sales to these countries are 40%, 17%, 12%, 6%, and 4%, respectively. The reason why sales to China represented 40% was because Chinese module manufacturers, which were impacted by the anti-dumping and countervailing policies, had stronger demand toward the cells that were produced in Taiwan. Although the demands in various regions tend to be stronger than others, many Taiwan cell makers are inclined to spread and diversify the risk due to the high unpredictability in the market. Additionally, they are also attempting to avoid relying on a single region or manufacturer too much.
The prospect for Taiwan’s PV cell manufacturers in the second half year seems optimistic. Although the impact of anti-dumping and countervailing issue on China was not as significant as expected, Chinese manufacturers are not likely to build factories overseas before any official decisions are made. Thus, currently, they still have to rely on Taiwan’s PV cell manufacturers. Taiwan’s PV cell manufacturers had the relative advantages since they can provide PID-free Products, better efficiency concentration, and superior product yield rate. However, the limited module distribution channels remain a problem for Taiwanese manufacturers, thus the development may not be as good for Taiwan’s PV manufacturers in the long run. It’s estimated that the majority of the demand will come from Japan, USA, Australia, and UK in the second half of the year. EnergyTrend believes that the shipment quantity of Taiwan’s PV cell manufacturers can hit a record high and may breakeven as the price and demand turn stable.