On Nov. 21, China's Ministry of Commerce publicized the outcome of its antidumping investigation against Korean-made PV polysilicon, confirming its dumping practice on the Chinese market. EnergyTrend analysts believe the finding will not impact polysilicon export and prices to China, citing minimum antidumping duty at only 4.4%.
Finding of the antidumping investigation is listed below:
According to EnergyTrend's weekly price survey, quotes of high-quality polysilicon by OTC for the Chinese market stand at RMB148-150/kg now, which already include 2.4% antidumping duty rendered by the preliminary ruling in 2014. Given 4.4% final antidumping duty, there will be only a markup of 2% tax, boosting the quotes to RMB2.96-3/kg.
Tsai Tu-wei, EnergyTrend analyst, notes that OCI may absorb the increased tax by itself and only pass on part of it to customers. In the latter case, given OCI's considerable market share, polysilicon prices on the Chinese market may rise slightly.
In the case of Hanhwa, the effect will be very small, as it suppliers mainly to its own downstream firms in China. It will be inevitable for Hankook to raise prices, given increase of its antidumping duty to 9.5%, up from 2.8% in preliminary ruling, which, though, will not have much influence on the overall Chinese market.