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TrendForce: Cliff Fall in Wafer Prices as Inventory Pressure Ascends

published: 2022-12-22 11:01


Polysilicon quotations continued to drop this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were respectively concluded at RMB 280/kg and RMB 275/kg. The decrement of downstream prices has been rather evident this week, and the corresponding pressure has been upward transmitted to the polysilicon segment, with quotations among mainstream polysilicon businesses also starting to loosen at a larger degree. This week saw fewer actual orders being signed, where the stronger wait-and-see sentiment from the downstream sector is gradually exacerbating the atmosphere of the polysilicon market. A small segment of mono-Si dense material quotations has dropped to RMB 255/kg, but no transactions have been concluded. As mainstream polysilicon businesses steadily climb in inventory, polysilicon prices are expected to fall continuously in the future.


Wafer prices have had a cliff fall this week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at RMB 5.4/pc and RMB 7.3/pc under a respective WoW reduction of 16.92% and 14.12%. Despite no adjustments in quotations among leading wafer businesses this week, the overall quotations of the wafer market have manifested a cliff fall, followed by cluttered concluded prices, while leading and specialized businesses have once again lowered their utilization. Wafer businesses are currently on the fence towards upstream polysilicon prices on the one hand, and are compromising on a larger degree of prices in order to seize orders amidst gradual panicking from the evidently climbing level of inventory pressure on the other hand. With that being said, wafer businesses may steadily stabilize in prices subsequently alongside polysilicon orders in January due to the consideration of cost.


Cell quotations continued to decline this week, with the volume of concluded transactions also shrinking at the same time. Mono-Si M6 had a smaller level of transactions this week under an apparent depletion of market demand, while mono-Si G12 still dominates the market. M10 and G12 were concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 1.15/W this week. For the supply end, there were no apparent changes in the operating rate from the cell market this week, though businesses are likely to go on early holidays amidst further coronavirus outbreaks. Cell prices are still likely to drop in the future alongside the constant drop of wafer prices, as well as the continuously weakening downstream demand.


Module quotations had slightly loosened again this week after the successive adjustments of quotations from the upstream industry chain. The module segment, compared to the upstream sector, saw a relatively smaller extent of reduction, though the level of transactions has yet to increase sizably amidst chaotic quotations. With the end of the year approaching, the end sector has slowed down on inventory pull, which is followed by a steady decrement in new module orders. First-tier businesses are currently at the delivering phase of orders, and have seen fewer actual concluded transactions despite changes in quotations. It is still possible for module prices to fall continuously in the future alongside the depletion of upstream industry chain prices. N-type modules were largely stabilized this week at a mainstream market quotation of RMB 2-2.1/W.

In terms of auxiliary materials, there were no significant fluctuations in glass quotations this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were respectively priced at RMB 27.5/㎡ and RMB 20.5/㎡. With fewer new glass orders on the market, together with the stronger wait-and-see market sentiment, glass prices are expected to drop further at the end of the month.

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