US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to announce the latest emission regulation this Thursday, which according to insiders will be exceedingly strict for the purpose of accelerating electrification among automotive manufacturers and surpassing 60% in EV market share before 2030.
The EPA has yet to finalize on the new environmental regulation, though insiders have revealed that they will bear strong similarities to that of California’s environmental regulations. While it will not enforce a comprehensive ban on fossil-fuel vehicles by 2035 like in California, the new EPA regulation will be applicable in the entire US, and aims to attain a market share of 54-60% for EVs prior to 2030.
This is an even more aggressive target to what President Biden proposed regarding the accomplishment of 50% EV market share by 2030. The EPA also laid down a high target that is over 67% of EV market share by 2032. Despite actual content of the regulation yet to be announced, existing regulations insinuate that the EPA is drafting the new regulation based on the carbon dioxide emission for each mile from automotive manufacturers in a particular year, and aims to lower the particular statistics each year.
Judging by the Model Year for 2023, the emission standard for sedans is about 170g, and roughly 220g for lightweight trucks. Take Toyota who first started promoting EV and carbon reduction as an example, the company has easily attained the comprehensive emission target (191g) by achieving 161g. Toyota, should it dedicate to the cause further, will not have to worry about carbon emission in the US market all the way until 2026.
▲EPA’s existing specifications regulate carbon emission for all vehicles to be 161g/mile on average by 2026.
EPA currently regulates the comprehensive emission for 2026 models to be 161g/mile, and is highly likely in regulating a significant upgrade in carbon emission starting from 2027 if the goal is to accomplish an increase in EV ratio to 60% by 2030. An estimation based on existing vehicle population indicates that the comprehensive emission standard for 2030 models could be below 90g.
Such implementation will undoubtedly force automotive manufacturers to drop their sales of fossil-fuel models by significantly raising EV products. The reason is simple since Tesla, while these major manufacturers are putting efforts into attaining a carbon emission at the 100g threshold, is sitting at -10 in carbon emission due to transactions of carbon rights. Not only is Tesla without any carbon emission, but the company is also sitting at a negative emission. This proves just how important EVs are for manufacturers regarding the accomplishment of carbon reduction targets.
This emission regulation was actually proposed back in 2016, but it was met with a joint opposition from all automotive manufacturers except Tesla, and EPA had eventually changed its standpoint and significantly lowered the requirement of carbon emission after strong lobbying. With support from Biden, EPA’s stricter environmental regulation has become inevitable for major automotive manufacturers.
(Cover photo source: GM)