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Positive Outlook for Domestic and International PV Demand, Industry Chain Prices Gradually Bottom Out

published: 2023-07-05 18:10

PV Demand: Both domestic and international PV demand are experiencing positive growth, with pent-up demand expected to be unleashed at a faster pace.

Domestic Area: In May, the national new PV installed capacity reached 12.90 GW, showing an impressive 88.9% year-on-year increase.

U.S.: The solar industry achieved a quarterly high in Q1 2023, with the installed capacity reaching new heights. Additionally, PV module imports reached 12 GW.

Europe: LevelTenEnergy, the world’s largest PPA market operator, launched PPA auctions. However, local manufacturers’ expansion plans are lagging behind demand, resulting in a noticeable gap in the short term.

Middle East: In May, imports of Chinese modules reached 1020 MW, slightly up from the previous month. Saudi Arabia's large-scale power plant project is accelerating and accounts for 40% of module imports in the Middle East.

Africa: High demand for renewable energy, driven by power restrictions and outages, is observed in South Africa. From January to May of this year, imports of PV modules exceeded 2.6 GW, nearly a 4.5-fold growth compared to the previous year.

Asia-Pacific Area: In May, China imported 2.5 GW of PV modules, marking a 17% year-on-year increase. Cumulative imports of Chinese PV modules in 2023 have reached 15.2 GW. In India, module prices have dropped to a level that encourages developers to start production. From January to May, module demand has gradually increased, with imports of Chinese PV modules reaching 2 GW.

Global: The increase in silicon production capacity has led to a decline in prices, which is expected to stimulate customer installations. With the rise in domestic bidding projects’ capacity, U.S. market rebounding swiftly, and demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America on the rise, it is predicted that global installed capacity will reach 400 GW in 2023.

Industrial Chain: Material prices are gradually stabilizing, and new cell technologies are flourishing.

Polysilicon: As of June 28, the average price of dense polysilicon dropped to 64 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.88% week-on-week decrease, with a lower decline rate compared to the previous two weeks.

Wafer: Prices of M10 and G12 wafers reached approximately 2.8 and 4.0 yuan per piece, respectively. Wafer prices correlate with silicon prices and are nearing the cost line. The decline rate has also narrowed, indicating that subsequent prices will experience a slight decrease, reaching a bottom in terms of price and profitability.

Cell: The transaction prices for M10 and G12 cells dropped to 0.7 RMB per watt and 0.73 RMB per watt, respectively. The prices of TOPCon (M10) cells also declined due to falling silicon wafer prices, reaching around 0.78 RMB per watt. The price difference of N-type and P-type cell remained at approximately 8 cents per watt.

Auxiliary Materials: It is expected that the overall production capacity of TOPCon will significantly increase in the second half of this year. Consequently, higher profits can be anticipated for welding belts, silver paste, junction boxes, and other related materials and equipment.

Overseas Export and Installed Data: Year-on-Year Increase in Export Amount, Favorable Policies for Chinese PV Enterprises

Export Data: The export amount of battery cells from January to May reached 152.193 billion yuan, marking a 23.66% year-on-year increase. In May alone, the export amount reached 31.553 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year growth. Inverter exports achieved an export amount of 28.272 billion yuan from January to May, showing an impressive 128.66% year-on-year increase. In May, the export amount reached 7.417 billion yuan, representing a substantial 94.83% year-on-year growth.

Germany: In May 2023, Germany witnessed a new PV installation capacity of 1040 MW, which marked an 89.18% year-on-year increase. From January to May, Germany’s PV new installation capacity amounted to 4.97 GW, demonstrating a robust 88.84% growth.

India: In May 2023, India's new PV installation capacity reached 743 MW, showing a decrease of 53.9% year-on-year.

Australia: In Q1 of 2023, Australia's new PV installation capacity reached 521.17 MW, indicating a decline of 28.91% year-on-year.

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published: 2024-07-12 17:35  |  tags: ,