Polysilicon
This Week's Prices:
This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 42.0/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 40.0/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 40.0/KG.
Market activity:
With wafer price hikes successfully passed through, ingot (crystal-pulling) companies are showing increased acceptance of rising polysilicon prices. The average transaction price has shifted upward, with only a small number of legacy orders still being fulfilled at previous prices. Comprehensive trading prices have stabilized around RMB 40/kg. As low-cost inventories are gradually depleted, transaction volumes are expected to rise.
Inventory Dynamics:
As of this week, total polysilicon inventory exceeds 370,000 tons, with stocks gradually shifting to ingot producers. This is largely due to aggressive stockpiling by professional wafer manufacturers ahead of the recent price increases.
Supply and demand outlook:
Looking ahead to August, rising polysilicon prices may prompt some second- and third-tier producers in Xinjiang and Qinghai to resume production. Leading manufacturers also have plans to ramp up output, suggesting a month-over-month increase in polysilicon production. However, considering wafer producers also plan to increase wafer production amid margin recovery, polysilicon supply and demand are expected to basically remain balanced.
On the policy front, anti-price-war regulations are still under discussion, with price guidance currently playing a role in stabilizing the market. More decisive "capacity clearing" measures are likely to take 1 to 2 quarters to be implemented due to their complexity.
Price trend:
Prices for all categories of N-type polysilicon rose again this week, with increases ranging from 18% to 23%. With wafers successfully passing on their own cost hikes, resistance to polysilicon price increases is weakening. Therefore, the momentum behind price hikes is solidifying, offering stronger justification for wafer price increases. Looking ahead, polysilicon prices may still trend upward, supported by the cost bottom line.
Wafers
This Week's Prices:
he mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.45/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Supply and demand:
Wafer producers have reduced operating rates this month, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation and clear inventory drawdown. Cell manufacturers, anticipating further price increases, are actively restocking. Companies that had stockpiled low-cost polysilicon earlier are now seeing notable margin recovery. The previous strategy of hoarding inventory to support price hikes has shown initial success and is now gradually being replaced by uniform pricing strategies under policy guidance. Wafers saw another round of price increases this week. With profits recovering, some producers plan to ramp up production in August.
Inventory:
Wafer inventory has now entered an inventory clearance phase.
Price trend:
Wafer prices across all specifications rose again this week. Most wafer manufacturers are strictly following the guided price levels. If polysilicon prices continue to rise and downstream acceptance improves, there’s still potential for wafer prices to move higher.
Cells
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.27/W. The price of G12 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W and that of G12R N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W.
Supply and demand:
The price of 183mm N-type cells rose by around 18% this week, mainly driven by growing overseas demand. 210R and 210mm cell formats also saw increases, though gains were weaker than in upstream segments. It is because price pass-through remains slow due to intense bargaining between module makers and end-users. Under the current regulatory environment against vicious price cutting competition, some urgent and premium orders are beginning to accept the cell price increases.
Inventory:
Inventory levels at specialized cell producers have declined this week. The market is largely in supply-demand balance, and inventory pressure is relatively light.
Price trend:
N-type cell prices for all major specifications rose this week. Pre-stocking efforts both domestically and abroad have temporarily boosted demand, enabling partial price pass-through. Whether this upward momentum can be sustained depends on the pricing power of module makers.
Modules
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-glass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.
Supply and demand:
Tier-1 manufacturers have fared better in order-taking, with some remaining deliveries still supporting volumes. However, Tier-2 and Tier-3 producers face poor orders and are forced to accept lower prices to maintain operations.
Price trend:
Leading players continue to pursue a strategy of price solidarity, with price increases of RMB 0.02–0.03/W likely to materialize gradually. Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers have also followed suit with smaller increases of RMB 0.01–0.02/W, largely driven by upstream wafer cost pressures. Distributed solar PV project orders have seen some upward price movement, and urgent orders show higher acceptance of price hikes.
However, utility-scale solar PV project developers remain price-sensitive, especially as IRR calculations are more impacted by module price hikes—leading to stiffer resistance and little change in actual transaction prices.
Looking ahead, with cost pass-through mechanisms and VAT rebate policies in place, overseas price transmission is expected to be smoother than in the domestic market, potentially leading overseas module prices upward first.
In China, as demand slows significantly, price negotiations remain intense. Any further module price increases could suppress demand.
Overseas demand:
Europe: Module prices were revised down in June as there are low-cost modules accessing to the market. With summer holidays approaching, market demand is gradually declining. India: DCR-compliant module prices rose slightly, mainly due to government project demand and higher local production costs driven by anti-dumping duties on BOM. Imported modules, however, saw slight price drops due to oversupply. USA: FOB prices remain stable, but the market is entering a volatile phase amid trade policy uncertainty in July–August, prompting users to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
