Demand Side:
The installed capacity of PV modules is set to maintain a high growth rate in 2023, followed by a gradual slowdown in 2024 and 2025. China’s PV module production is projected to experience year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 10%, and 10% in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively.
Structural changes in demand are anticipated, driven by the increasing market share of N-type and bifacial cells. Consequently, the market share of POE film and EPE film is expected to continue growing, while the market share of EVA film is likely to further decline.
Supply Side:
China holds over 90% of the world’s PV film production capacity. With a market experiencing high growth, an increasing number of companies are competing for market share. As of the end of 2022, China’s PV film production capacity had reached 4.58 billion square feet, with an additional capacity under construction of 3.48 billion square feet. It is expected that approximately 1.13 billion square feet of new capacity will be added in 2023. Although the data is based on company announcements, the actual pace of expansion is anticipated to be even faster.
Raw Materials Side:
China has significant potential for domestic production expansion in both EVA and POE films. Currently, China’s EVA import dependence stands at 44.5% as of 2022, indicating ample room for expanding domestic production. While POE is currently imported from other regions, Chinese enterprises are actively developing domestic POE production, with production capacity plans exceeding 2.5 million tons. Consequently, the substitution of imported POE with domestic alternatives is imminent.
